GKA THOUGHTS – Page 14 – Gopal Krishna Agarwal

Higher Education in India – Key to Inclusive Economic Growth

July 7, 2018

The large scale inequalities that we see in India today is mostly resulting from inequality of opportunities and not on the basis of choices or abilities alone.

Education is the greatest leveler. It is a potential tool in the empowerment of those sections of our society that suffers from various forms of exclusion even after seven decades of independence. It can also have strong equity enhancing and inequality reducing impact if it is easily accessible and affordable. Education also empowers individuals and society and promotes true public involvement in the development process – making it robust and participatory.

India’s higher education system is the third largest in the world, after China and the United States. This, however, is only in terms of numbers. So far as the quality of higher education is concerned, India compares very poorly. According to the World University Ranking for the year 2018 United States has 62 universities in the global top 200, China has 7 and India has none. It shows that while India has made great strides in terms of numbers, it has not paid adequate attention on the quality aspect of education. Another problem is that most students going for higher education from reputed institutions leave the country and go outside for work, resulting in brain drain.

Ancient India had paid great attention to education and ‘Gurus’ commanded respect even from the mightiest kings. The system of ‘Gurukulas’ was accessible to everyone and the prince and the pauper studies under the same roof. It was also free and at the completion of the education process, each student paid according to his capacity. During the later periods, India also had institutes of higher studies at Taxila and Nalanda, which attracted students from all over the world. The education system gradually withered away during the medieval era. The present education system in India is a legacy from Britishers, who developed the system to meet its own needs.

Education has been a focus area since independence because it was seen as a tool to promote rapid economic development of the country. Higher education was also supposed to remove social barriers and provide upward social mobility but India’s patchy record in this field has ensured that our economic growth remains far from inclusive. It is thus imperative that access to affordable education at all levels i.e. from elementary education to higher education is ensured to achieve the goals of inclusive growth.

Investment in human capital

Education empowers people with skills and knowledge and gives them access to productive employment in future. The productive capacity of an economy depends on three factors of production i.e. land, labour and capital. Quality of labour i.e. human capital is primarily based on the skill and knowledge embodied in its population. The development of a strong nation requires that the human resources of the country be endowed with higher level of education, skill and specialization, in addition to good health.

Literacy as a qualitative attribute of the population is one of the most important indicators of its preparedness to skill and specialise. As per our decadal census our literacy rate has been going up which shows that a large part of our population is in a position to embody higher human capital. What is needed is a focused approach by the government to boost investment in education and health to build human capital.

The expansion in the number of institutions of higher education and their intake capacity has not been able to ensure simultaneous sustenance of quality. There is a severe shortage of well-qualified faculty, teaching facilities and proper infrastructure. As such, the quality parameters associated with teaching and research needs sustained attention and policy focus by the government. Kothari Commission had recommended that the expenditure on education should be 6 percent of GDP but the Government has consistently failed to achieve this target. The expenditure on education in India hovers around 2-3 percent of GDP.

Tapping the demographic dividend

Demographic dividend is superficially understood as the increasing share of the working age population in the total population of a country. The positive effect of this youth bulge can be realized only if this population is healthy and educated and finds gainful employment. Failure to provide employment to youth having ‘degrees’ is a recipe for social disaster as their angst and frustration can lead to destructive outcomes.

According to the AISHE survey, 2015-16, the Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) in Higher education in India is 24.5%, which is calculated for 18-23 years of age group. GER for male population is 25.4% and for females, it is 23.5%. For scheduled castes, it is 19.9% and for scheduled tribes, it is 14.2% as compared to the national GER of 24.5%. Thus our GER is not only low, it also has a class character. It is lower for females and even lower for disadvantaged sections of the society like schedule castes and schedule tribes. It must be borne in mind that if the our degree holders fail to get remunerative work, it is likely to deter others, especially those from the lower strata of the society, from pursuing education because it entails a huge opportunity cost.

The demographic dividend can be tapped by educating our youth (increasing the GER) but doing more of the same is not going to help matters. India faces a paradoxical situation in having a mass of educated unemployed while at the same time industries facing acute shortage of skilled workmen. The situation can be resolved by coming up with educational courses that will fill the skill gaps in the industrial sector.

Enhancing effectiveness of governance

Education is a crucial instrument to make humans aware of their rights and duties. This awareness leads to a more demanding populace and ensures better governance. An educated population leads to participatory governance and better & more informed policy-making. It is generally seen that countries, which have achieved higher educational levels for their population have better respect for the rule of law, constitutional norms and niceties.

Market-oriented and skill intensive

A chief problem of Indian education is its defective and unbalanced curriculum. The curriculum, which is prescribed for the study emphasizes only bookish knowledge and rote learning. It is, therefore, not surprising at all that Indian education system churns out millions of unemployable graduates year after year while the economy suffers from lack of manpower with requisite skill-set, while there is lack of research and development skill set in higher education. According to the All India Survey on Higher Education (AISHE) 2015-16 only 10 programmes out of approximately 180 cover 83% of the total students enrolled in higher education. It further showed that maximum numbers of students are enrolled in B.A. program followed by B.Sc. and B.Com. programs, only 1.7% colleges run Ph.D. courses.

It is evident from the above data that most of our students are taking traditional courses. These courses are not tailored to the needs of the economy. Even professional courses like Engineering lack the dynamism needed to respond to the changing needs of the job market. The present government has tried to address it by focusing on making education, market oriented and skill intensive, emphasizing on vocational studies. Under the ‘Skill India’ initiative of the Government of India, the goal is to empower the youth with skill sets, which make them employable and more productive in their work environment. Skill India offers courses across 40 sectors in the country and are aligned to the standards recognised by the industry and the government under the National Skill Qualification Framework. The courses help a person focus on practical delivery of work and help him enhance his technical expertise so that he is ready from day one of his job and companies don’t have to invest into training him for his job profile. Under the Atal Innovation mission, government has set up Atal Tinkering Labs to encourage experimentations at the school level and Atal Incubation Centres provide hand holding to give industrial linkages to technological innovations.

Technological advancement

The spatial distribution of institutes of higher education also poses a challenge for inclusive economic growth. College density, i.e. the number of colleges per lakh eligible population (population in the age-group 18-23 years) varies from 7 in Bihar to 60 in Telangana as compared to all India average of 28. Except for a few top universities and colleges, ensuring quality education in other institutions has also been one of the biggest challenges for the government.

Technological advancements provide us with an opportunity to overcome these challenges. With the increasing penetration of high-speed Internet connection in India, higher education in India need not be location or college specific. High quality videos on various regular and professional courses can be made and shared online for them to be freely accessible. Students can watch these videos and then take exams at their convenience. For this to materialize the government should provide conducive regulatory environment. Educational institutions should be well regulated, having good infrastructure facilities and there is growth in the sector, attracting requisite resources for development.

Conclusion

The state of higher education in India leaves much to be desired. Though governments’ initiatives have created islands of excellence like the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) and Indian Institutes of Management (IIM) etc., most of the other universities and colleges are not up to mark. Admission to such colleges is not always possible due to issues of accessibility and affordability. Students also lack proper guidance on the available educational facilities and carrier counseling. The central and the state governments need to focus on higher education to make it more inclusive, purposeful and skill oriented. It will go a long way in making India’s economic growth more broad-based and inclusive.

Paving the path to prosperity

June 19, 2018

As a part of its ongoing election campaign for Karnataka state elections, Congress party got ex- Prime Minister Shri Manmohan Singh to criticize Modi government’s management of Indian economy at a press conference in Bengaluru. It must be said that the critique was based on half-truths designed to mislead than to enlighten.

In the said press conference it was claimed that the UPA delivered an average growth rate of 7.8 percent under turbulent global conditions whereas the NDA, has managed lesser growth rate despite favorable international climate and low oil prices. In order to see through the dishonesty in this statement, we will need to segregate the performance of UPA I and UPA II. What Shri Singh has conveniently ignored is the fact that in 2004, UPA I inherited an economy that was in pink of its health, thanks to the macroeconomic policies of the NDA government headed by Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Add to this the fact that, the Global Economy and international trade had witnessed some of its best years during this period. The average annual GDP growth rate of India during this period was 8.45 per annum.

No doubt, global factors had turned somewhat adverse during UPA II, but fiscally profligate policies of UPA I were coming home to roost during the tenure of UPA II. High Inflation had broken the back of the common man. When Mr Singh relinquished power in 2014 the economy was at the edge of a precipice (India was infamously part of the ‘Global fragile five’). It is instructive to note that the growth rate during the last two years of Manmohan Singh’s tenure was 5.4 and 6.1 percent respectively, with very high fiscal and current account deficits and low foreign exchange reserves.

Rising non-performing assets (NPA) of the banking system is one of the criticisms. There has been a relentless attempt by the Congress party to confuse the public by mentioning the loan write-offs and farm loan waiver in the same vein. Actually the Corporate loans are not being written off, but the banks are making provisions for the bad loans created under the previous UPA regime, so that the banks balance sheets are strengthened. All earlier attempts like SDR, S4A, CDR, LoC, LoU etc, to tackle NPA were simply to restructure and ever greening bad loans. Increased NPA is the result of the Modi Government identifying and recognizing a problem that existed in the system. The bad loans have increased by a magnitude of three times (from Rs 2.61 lakh crore to Rs 8.4 lakh crore by September, 2017) out of the outstanding loans in 2014 only.

The Narendra Modi government has enacted The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), which is helping in recovery of Bad Loans from the defaulters possible for the first time. The prospect of defaulting promoters losing control of their companies was unthinkable before IBC. ‘The Economist’, whose antipathy towards BJP is well known, has also said that due to IBC, “the outlines of a fresh era in Indian capitalism are taking shape.”

Congress and Mr Singh have also tried to create ruckus about the tax collection by the government. They say that the Government has collected Rs. 10 lakh crore through taxes on petroleum products without mentioning that this collected over the last four years. The taxes on petroleum products are counter-cyclical in nature and the Government has reduced them to a certain extent due to rising prices. It should also be noted that the administered price mechanism (APM) followed during the UPA years had led to hidden subsidies through the issuance of Oil Bonds, without provisioning in the budget. So far as appropriation of this revenue is concerned, Government has been able to bring down the fiscal deficit from 4.48 percent of GDP in 2013-14 to 3.24 in 2017-18 and keeping inflation under check. At the same time increased government spending on infrastructure.

Infrastructure spending is one of the focus areas of Modi Government because of its multiplier effect on other sectors of the economy and better quality of life for the common men. From spending Rs. 1,74,000 crore on infrastructure in the FY 15, the spending in FY 18 is expected to be Rs. 2,92,200 crore – an annual increase of 19 % per annum. The average annual construction of highways in the three-year period of NDA government stood at 6,200 kms against 5,000 kms in the preceding three years, similar is the case for rural roads, irrigation coverage and low cost housing. The increased government spending has also created demand for cement, steel and construction equipment.

On agriculture sector Shri Singh has claimed that in the last four years current government has reversed the successes of UPA government of increasing MSP and rise in exports. But the fact is that the current government has recognized that the problem in agriculture sector is not one of production, but of income security. To address rural distress, focus of the government has shifted from increasing production to doubling of farmer’s income. A large number of steps like e-NAM and model APMC Act, better agriculture risk mitigation through insurance has been taken to ensure that farmers get better price for their produce.

Independent bodies have also attested the current stellar performance of Indian economy. Centre for International Development at Harvard University in its report has said that India would be the fastest growing economy in the world in the coming decade. In 2017 Moody’s raised India’s sovereign rating from Baa3 to Baa2 after a gap of 13 years.

UPA is too recent in our memories to forget that Mr Singh led Congress government was not only one of the most corrupt governments since independence but also poor economic manager. The government is still willing to engage with Congress party because it shares Manmohan Singh’s belief that no one person can be the repository of all wisdom in a complex and diverse country like India. He should try to convince his party to shed its confrontationist attitude towards the Government. Wasting full sessions of Parliament is neither going to help the nation nor the Congress.

People of Karnataka are intelligent enough to see through the lies, deceit and inefficiency of the Siddaramaiah government. Whatever Congress party does, its fate is already sealed so far as the Karnataka assembly elections are concerned.

Gopal Krishna Agarwal

National Spokesperson on Economic affairs of BJP

Gopal.agarwal@bjp.org

Lack Of Technical Evaluation

June 15, 2018

There are several factors ailing corporate India. From the stakeholders’ viewpoint, it boils down to ease of doing business (EODB); whether it is regulations, compliances, permission or a level playing field. From a corporate point of view, the success or failure of a business will largely depend on its corporate governance. Corporate governance doesn’t mean the composition of board and how decisions are arrived at, but how companies identify projects, evaluate them technically, undertake feasibility studies and calculate the payback period. Otherwise how do you explain big corporate houses taking up and committing mega investments in infrastructure projects without even land acquisition in place?

Similar is the case with power generation, steel production and telecom sectors. In all these segments, we find large non-performing assets. Because there was little estimation about what will be the future demand; how much capacity is being generated; is it in sync with business life cycles; its impact on return on equity; and little consideration for backward and forward supply chain integration. Now we are saddled with many unviable projects with over capacity.

The corporate world will have to take responsibility for selection of projects and proper feasibility studies. They will have to own up the success or failure of their businesses, and then alone can there be an exit route for genuine business risks.

This evaluation should also take place at the financial institutions level. A corporate house cannot take up a project simply because finance is available. Similarly, banks cannot finance a project because a big name is associated with it or there is a lead banker, as is done in consortium finance.

At the government’s level, there is a lack of developmental financial institutions. This gap cannot be filled by commercial banks alone. Commercial banks are lending merely on the basis of financial feasibility studies; relying on outside technical reports. Term lending should not be done without technical evaluation by experts within the institutions. Generally, developmental financial institutions have in built capacity for technical evaluation. At present, we lack such institutions. Earlier, we had Industrial Development Bank of India (IDBI), Industrial Finance Corporation of India (IFCI), etc. Over time such institutions have been dismantled or converted into commercial banks.

Along with the removal of bottlenecks in factors of production such as land, labour and capital in progress, the government has to establish developmental financial institutions and the corporate world has to improve its corporate governance at the project level, evaluating them thoroughly. Only then the true benefit of such important government initiatives such as integrated cluster development for global supply chain, and defense corridors incorporating domestic requirements for captive demand, will bring desired results.

Gopal Krishna Agrawal

National Spokesperson of BJP on economic affairs

gopal.agarwal@bjp.org

Modi Government: Hype VS Reality

June 4, 2018

As the Modi government completes 4 years of its first term in office and the nation braces itself for the general elections next year, it is opportune moment to understand the inner motivations of the Government that shape its policies and workings. The victory of Narendra Modi led BJP in the 2014 general election was a tectonic shift in Indian politics. The mandate was a rejection of incrementalism in favour of transformative changes. Modi was voted to power on the promise of accelerating economic growth, creating corruption free environment and achieving participative development.

Economic Philosophy:

Modi government believes in being fiscally responsible, increasing efficiency of government expenditure and makes laws and policies that favour empowerment over entitlement.

Within the ambit of this philosophy and guided by ‘Antyodaya’, government is unabashedly pro-poor. Committed to address the challenge of slow economic growth and inequality, the government is not dogmatic about the instruments that should be used. This a clear shift from the policy of doles and entitlement followed by the UPA government.

Focus on infrastructure spending and increased allocation for economically disadvantaged sections of the society required higher governmental spending. Achieving this while at the same time reducing fiscal deficit called for increasing the tax to GDP ratio. Towards this goal, government implemented the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which is the biggest tax reform since independence. GST has broadened the tax base by creating a system where registration, filing, assessment, credit and refund are all online with little scope for subjective intervention and harassment.
Inflation is tamed and fiscal deficit is controlled by the Government by taking strong policy decisions. The government has tried to address all pervasive corruption through steps like demonetization, direct benefit transfer (DBT), Jan Dhan Accounts, Benami Properties Act and increased transparency in governmental working. Deregistration of shell companies, renegotiation of bilateral tax treaties, Income Disclosure Schemes (IDS) have been other steps in this direction. Business transactions through banking channels are being encouraged so that they leave an audit trail.Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) has been one of the biggest reforms in the factors’ market. Promoters of defaulter companies are facing a real challenge of losing control over their companies. The successful resolution of the NPA of Bhushan Steel Limited under the IBC is going to be a game-changer for the banking sector. Financial Regulation and Deposit Insurance (FRDI) Bill seeks to create an institutional setup to resolve distress in financial institutions but is facing opposition from Congress party.
The kleptocracy that was UPA had led to a disappointment in the international community about the future of India. A hallmark of current government’s foreign policy has been the concerted attempt to dispel this image and to assure the global community that India will realize its true potential. The trust of the global community is vindicated by the ever rising foreign direct investments (FDI) in India.

Social philosophy:

When it comes to the social dimension of its programs and policies Modi government believes in scale, speed and the power of mass movement to realise the objective of Social upliftment.
Sanitation campaign under the aegis of ‘Swachh Bharat Abhiyan’ is to provide a life of dignity and honour to the poor, irrespective of their religion, caste or gender. ‘Beti bachao Beti padhao’ initiative of the government seeks to provide equality of status and opportunity to our daughters. The government has been successful in creating awareness and public participation. Modi Government’s stand in the Hon’ble Supreme Court in the matter of triple talaq flowed from its conviction that the practice was unconscionable and did grave injustice to Muslim women.
Political philosophy:

‘Sabka saath sabka vikas’ which loosely translates as a government that enjoys the support of every section of the society and that works for the development of all, is the credo of Modi government.
Modi government is not guided by narrow electoral considerations. The difference with the working of the Congress led UPA is too obvious to be missed. The Congress government during the period of 2004-2014 tried to institutionalize the cleavages of the Indian society with the hope to reap electoral gains. It made all attempts to pass a ‘Communal Violence Bill’ that was manifestly against the Hindus as was the Right to Education Act which exempted only minority educational institutions from its ambit, creating an incentive for various sects to dissociate from Hinduism. The UPA government has also constituted Sachar Committee for Muslims and was trying to make changes which it clearly knew to be unconstitutional. A completely fabricated narrative by the name of ‘Saffron terror’ was sought to be developed by Congress government in order to consolidate Muslim votes.
Modi government believes that responsive and effective governance also ensures electoral success. Thus so far as the government is concerned it should respect the mandate of the people by focusing on doing its job. It also firmly believes that good economics is good politics. Unlike the earlier governments, Modi government has not created vested interest for limited number of people in its continuation. The government has created higher benchmarks and evaluation matrix for fixing accountability and is willing to defend its performance. The success of BJP in the state elections since 2014 bear testimony to the fact that Modi government is reaping political rewards for its work at the centre.
Gopal Krishna Agrawal

National Spokesperson of BJP on economic affairs

gopal.agarwal@bjp.org

The Modi-Xi bonhomie at Wuhan

June 2, 2018

The global interest generated by the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Wuhan for an ‘informal’ summit meeting with the Chinese President Xi Jinping is testimony to the importance of these two Asian giants in the present global order.

China and India are not only important for each other, their agreements or disagreements on issues can now influence the global narrative. The world today is dealing with intractable issues of terrorism, rise in protectionism and climate change, and both India and China have to make important contributions in these matters.

Pain points

There are many sore points in Indo-China relations. The dispute arising from China’s refusal to accept MacMahan Line as the international border hangs like Damocles’ sword over our relationship and the stand-off at Doklam was a chilling reminder of it.

China’s unqualified support to Pakistan has also been a cause of concern here. It has allowed Pakistan to raise its stakes against India.

India has also expressed its displeasure at the ‘One Belt One Road’ project passing through Pakistan occupied Kashmir . India’s attempt to get Masood Azhar designated as an international terrorist by the United Nations has constantly been vetoed by China.

It has also frustrated India’s goal of becoming a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. China’s refusal to share river water data on Brahmaputra is also an irritant.

China has its own reasons to be frosty with India. India’s asylum to Tibetans is not viewed very kindly by it. India’s growing proximity with the US and the coalescing of this association with Japan and Australia with a view to ensure freedom of navigation in the South China Sea irks China.

China’s riding roughshod over its smaller neighbours has led these countries developing closer ties with India, which, even with all its limitations, is seen as a country that can stand up to China. It is in this background that this informal summit is taking place.

In spite of these hiccups, there are several areas in which India can be benefit from better ties with China. China is India’s biggest trading partner and runs a considerable balance of trade surplus with India at around $50 billion. India has expressed its discomfort at this skewed trade relationship and China has expressed its willingness to address the issue.

With labour costs rising in China, a lot of low value-addition manufacturing will become internationally uncompetitive.

India can benefit from this by insisting that Indian MSME clusters be made part of Chinese global supply chain.

The second leg of achieving trade balance can be higher exports of agricultural and pharmaceutical goods and IT services. India must insist that tariff and non-tariff barriers do not stultify the export of products and services in these categories. India should also insist on local production of Chinese imports to bring down the trade deficit. Such a shift in manufacturing will also complement the government’s ‘Make in India’ initiative.

FDI from China

India also stands to benefit if it can attract foreign direct investment (FDI) from China. According to the RBI’s provisional figures for 2016-17, FDI received from China was a mere $198 million whereas the total FDI received that year was $36.32 billion.

According to the World Investment Report 2017, in 2016 China was the second largest source of outward FDI, at $183 billion. China as a source of FDI is, therefore, virtually untapped. FDI from China can be in railways and the power, fintech and infrastructure sectors, where India needs huge capital investments.

India can also work with China in the areas of energy security, water security and climate change. Indian and Chinese interests converge on the issue of energy security as both are dependent on foreign sources for fossil fuels.

China can also help in developing our renewable energy sector.

Gains to China from a good relationship with India are also considerable. As China prospers it would need outlet for its capital. India, with its vast market, can be one of the attractive opportunities. China’s ambitious ‘One Belt One Road’ project cannot be truly successful without the participation of India.

India and China share very old cultural and civilisational ties. It is hoped that the sagacity of the leadership of these two countries at the Wuhan meet will provide the two countries with a new template to revive the old bonds.

Gopal Krishna Agrawal

National Spokesperson of BJP

Gopal.agarwal@bjp.org

Save The Constitution: From Whom?

May 31, 2018

The attempt of the Congress party to impeach the Chief Justice of India merely on allegations has set a very dangerous precedent for our polity. Democratic values require that political parties have patience when in opposition. Democratic constitutions have carved out a special place for opposition and they are supposed to play that role responsibly. The problem has arisen because the Congress believes it has birthright to rule over India and its commitment to democratic ethos holds good only till it keeps retaining power. Once out of power, it is working to undermine the very structure that keeps the country together. Congress’s disdain for democratic values is also very clear from the complete absence of it in its inner party structure and workings. Congress is not an ideologically coherent party and power is the glue that keeps it together. There is no ‘Lakshman Rekha’ for it. This has been the history of the Congress and its first family.

Jawahar Lal Nehru made concerted attempts to ensure that any challenge to his government or to his leadership did not emerge from any corner. As prime minister, he undermined the contributions of his contemporaries in the Congress like Sardar Patel, Dr Bhimrao Ambedkar, Dr Shyama Prasad Mookerjee etc and sought to discredit rival ideologies, for e.g, by linking the murder of Mahatma Gandhi to the Rastriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

Emergency, the only blot on our vibrant democracy, was imposed by the Congress government under Smt Indira Gandhi, when she saw power slipping out of her hands. Similarly Rajiv Gandhi, in his desperate attempt to woo Muslim electorate, reversed the hon’ble Supreme Court’s verdict in the Shah Bano case and when faced by a political backlash, allowed the shilanyas at Ram Janmbhoomi at Ayodhya. It is in this context that Salman Kurshid had to accept that Congress has the blood of Muslims on its hands.

It has to be accepted that our Government, in spite of many initiative still being work in progress, has done a remarkable job in a short span of 4 years and is comfortably placed for 2019 general election. Thus, Congress is faced with an existential dilemma and has resorted to mindless and vicious attacks on constitutional and other institutions. It has done greatest disservice to the nation by attacking the Supreme Court, the Election Commission and the Defense Forces.

When Congress performed abysmally in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections in 2017, it laid the blame on the door of the venerable Election Commission of India and the electronic voting machines (EVM). Democracy has taken deep roots in this country because the people have faith in its electoral process. A country deemed to be unfit for democracy, has seen peaceful transfers of power. By questioning the credibility and impartiality of election commission, Congress is sowing seeds of a tree that will bear bitter fruits in the future.

Similar has been the attitude of the Congress towards the hon’ble Supreme Court of India. So long as the Congress did not have problems with the decisions of the Supreme Court, it chose to keep quite but raised grave doubts on the impartiality of this institution when in certain matters the decisions did not meet the wishes of the Party. The most reprehensible attempt to bully the higher judiciary of the country was its decision to impeach the Chief Justice of India on completely baseless grounds, which was rejected by the Chairman of the Rajya Sabha.

It must be said that the manner in which the impeachment drama has unfolded has led credence to the theory that the initial threat of impeachment was a hint to the CJI of the consequence that was likely to follow if he did not deliver order which the Congress wanted in the PIL seeking investigation in Judge Loya’s death. The initiation of impeachment is also to compel the CJI to not take up the Ayodhya dispute matter.

In September, 2016 the Government announced that Indian armed forces had carried out surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir in response to the Pakistan sponsored terrorism. Congress demanded proof from the government about the surgical strikes. Dragging the completely apolitical defense forces in the political slugfest was a new low in Indian politics.

Contrast all these with the behavior of the BJP and its predecessor Jan Sangh. It had ideological differences with the Congress government but it showed full faith in democracy and has never attacked the democratic institutions. We kept patience for 60 years since independence expressing dissent, but never disrupting governance.

In a vast country like India with diversity and long historical background there is bound to be a multiplicity of values, interests and beliefs and multiple parties representing them, but parties that undermine the building blocks of this country and its society, will not be accepted by the voters. The same fate awaits the Congress party now under Rahul Gandhi.

Gopal Krishna Agrawal

National Spokesperson of BJP

Gopal.agarwal@bjp.org

Modi in China: Mending strained ties for mutual benefit

May 26, 2018

The global interest generated by the visit of prime minister Narendra Modi to Wuhan for an ‘informal’ summit meeting with the Chinese president Xi Jinping is a testimony to the importance of these two Asian giants in the present global order. China and India are not only important for each other, their agreements or disagreements on issues can now influence the global narrative. The world today is dealing with intractable issues of terrorism, rise in protectionism and climate change and both India and China have to make important contributions in these matters.
Modi government’s foreign policy has been focused on developing bilateral ties to serve India’s interest with various countries. Bilateral relations are all about give-and-take.
There are many sore points in the Indo-China relationship from our point of view. The dispute arising from China’s refusal to accept Macmohan line as the international border hangs like Damocles sword over our relationship and the standoff at Doklam was a chilling reminder of it. China’s unqualified support to Pakistan has also been a cause of concern here. It has allowed Pakistan to raise its stakes against India. India has also expressed its displeasure at the ‘One Belt One Road’ (OBOR) passing through Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK). India’s attempt to get Masood Azhar designated as international terrorist by the United Nations has constantly been vetoed by China. It has also frustrated India’s goal of becoming a member of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). China’s refusal to share river water data on Brahmaputra and others was also an irritant.
China has its own reasons to be frosty with India. India’s asylum to Tibetians is not viewed very kindly by it. India’s growing proximity with United States of America and the coalescing of this association with Japan and Australia with a view to ensure freedom of navigation in the South China Sea irks China. Chinese riding roughshod over its smaller neighbours has led these countries to develop closer ties with India, which even with all its limitations, is seen as a country that can stand up to China. It is in this background that this informal summit is taking place.
In spite of all these hiccups, there are several considerations in which India can be benefited from better ties with China. China is the biggest trading partner of India and runs a considerable balance of trade surplus with India at around $50 billion. India has expressed its discomfort at this skewed trade relationship and China has expressed its willingness to address the issue. With the labour cost rising in China, a lot of low value addition manufacturing will become internationally uncompetitive and will have to move out to countries. India can benefit from this by insisting that Indian MSME clusters be made part of Chinese global supply chain. The second leg of achieving trade balance can be higher exports of agricultural and pharmaceutical goods and IT services. India must insist that tariff and non-tariff barriers do not stultify the export of Indian products and services in these categories. It is of paramount importance that India finds outlet for its increasing agricultural production, failing which Indian farmers will continue to suffer from price crashes. India should also insist on local production of Chinese imports to bring down trade deficit. Such a shift in manufacturing will also complement government’s ‘Make in India’ initiative.
India also stands to benefit if it can attract foreign direct investment (FDI) from China. According to the provisional figures for the year 2016-17 of the Reserve Bank of India, FDI received from China was USD 198 million whereas the total FDI received that year was USD 36.32 billion. Thus China’s share in total FDI was about 0.55 percent. According to the World Investment Report 2017, which was jointly released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, China was the second largest source of outward FDI in the year 2016 with the figure being USD 183 billion. China as a source of FDI is therefore virtually untapped. These FDI can be in the field of Power, Fintech, infrastructure sector and railways, where India needs huge capital investments.
India can also work with China in the areas of energy security, water security and climate change. Indian and Chinese interests converge on the issue of energy security as they both are dependent on foreign sources of fossil fuels. At the recently concluded 16^th International Energy Forum, it was agreed that India and China will work together to leverage their buying power to get better deals from oil exporting countries. China can also be of great help in developing our renewable energy sector. Mansarovar, which is the source of three major rives that pass through India, lies in China and we need Chinese cooperation in order to fully utilize these rivers.
Gains to China from a good relationship with India are also considerable. Assured of a responsible behavior from China in consonance with the international laws, India will have no reason to be a part of any international containment strategy against China. Further, as China prospers it would need outlet for its capital. India, with its vast market, can be one of the attractive opportunities. China’s most ambitious global signature project of One Belt One Road, which seeks to recreate the silk route of the old times, cannot be truly successful without the participation of India.
India and China share very old cultural and civilizational ties. It is hoped that the sagacity of the leadership of these two countries at the Wuhan meet will provide the two countries with a new template to revive the old bonds.

Gopal Krishna Agrawal

National Spokesperson on Economic affairs of BJP

Indian Economy has bottomed out & poised for healthy growth in coming days

October 31, 2017

The two great reforms by the Modi government despite having numerous benefits to the economy have been criticized by some people in the opposition. The temporary slowdown in the economic growth has given some cause of worry. However, on 24^th October, Finance Minister, Shri Arun Jatliey, reassured the people of the country that the economy is recovering fast. The government presented the facts where economy is progressing along with the necessary steps taken by it to sustain growth momentum.

India grew at a strong pace of 7.5% p.a. in last three years during 2014-17, with growth exceeding 8% in 2015-16. There was a temporary slippage in growth in the last two quarters but that slowdown is now over, with all indicators like –IIP numbers, healthy growth in 8 core sectors (coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilizers, steel, cement and electricity) ,better performance in market Index, growth in automobile industry , higher consumer spending etc. all of which are pointing towards a strong growth pick up.

Finance Minister said that the public sector banks have adequate lending capacity after demonetization. Indiscriminate lending under UPA regime had led to accumulation of non-performing assets and is now under control. Inflation declined from nearly double digits in 2012-13 and 2013-14 to an average of less than 5 per cent. It has consistently come down (3.28%) and will not cross 4 per cent this fiscal, according to Economic Affairs Secretary S C Garg.

The current account deficit (CAD) for 2015-16 was 1.1 per cent of GDP as compared to 1.3 per cent of GDP in 2014-15. The CAD further narrowed to 0.7 per cent of GDP in 2016-17 on the back of the contraction in the trade deficit that narrowed to US$ 112.4 billion in 2016-17 from US$ 130.1 billion in 2015-16. Though exports declined in 2015-16 primarily on account of the sluggish global demand but on the other hand, imports have also declined due to fall in international crude oil prices as well as in the prices of other commodities. During 2016-17, exports grew by healthy 5.2 per cent while imports increased by 0.9 per cent only, helping in narrowing the trade deficit.

Foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 370 billion at the end of March 2017 as compared to 360.2 billion as at end March, 2016. As on 13th October 2017 the foreign exchange reserves exceeded US$ 400 billion. With increase in reserves in the last couple of years, most reserve-based external sector vulnerability indicators have improved

The gross FDI flows to India in 2016-17 amounted to US$ 60.2 billion, as compared to US$ 55.6 billion in 2015-16 and US$ 45.1 billion in 2014-15, indicating sustained improvement in global confidence in Indian economy. During April-August 2017, the gross FDI inflow was US$ 30.4 billion, higher as compared to the inflow of US$ 23.3 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year. The government is committed to sticking to the deficit target of 3.2 per cent of GDP for the current fiscal but added that a review would be done in December.

The GDP growth slowdown has bottomed out and the economy is turning around gradually. Also the International Monetary Fund had recently projected that the country would achieve 8 per cent growth rate soon giving positive hopes to the economy. The government is also confident of surpassing the disinvestment target of Rs 72,500 crore for this fiscal.

Financial Services Secretary, Shri Rajiv Kumar said an aggressive Rs 2.11 lakh crore capital infusion for banks for resolution of NPA issue (in March 2017 stood at about Rs7.29 lakh crore, equivalent to 5% of the country’s GDP) will help banking sector. Out of this, Rs 1.35 lakh crore will be through the recapitalization bonds- government instruments subscribed to by banks, while remaining Rs 76,000 crore from the budgetary support i.e by the government or by the banks. Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) is high priority area for fund infusion through increased lending. There will be 100 bank-approved project templates along with MSME customized Mudra financing products. These Cabinet decisions will benefit enhanced market access and employment. This will be facilitated through a GEM portal and will be connected to eCommerce portals. There will be special campaign in 50 high employment clusters.

Finance Secretary Ashok Lavasa made a presentation on the government’s spending on infrastructure to “create more jobs, more growth,” detailing that 83,677 km of highways will be built in the next five years at a cost of 6.9 lakh crore. “It will create 14 crore man days of jobs,” he said. Also a road building programmed, known as Bharat Mala, under which 34,800 kms of roads will be constructed. for which Rs 5,35,000 crore will be invested. Besides, a 9,000 km economic corridor will also be built , along with inter corridor and feeder route (6,000km), National Corridors Efficiency Improvement, Border Roads and International Connectivity (2,000km), Coastal Roads and Port Connectivity(2,000 km), Greenfield Expressways(800km) and Balance NHDP works(10,000 km).Prioritizing national security, the government aims to strengthen border road connectivity. The government also listed out plans for increasing rural road connectivity and universal affordable housing. All these measures will surely help the economy to grow at a fast pace in near future.

Gopal Krishna Agarwal

National Spokesperson of Bjp Economic Affairs

Contrarian View Is Fine, But Govt Is Trying Hard

October 14, 2017

Any debate on real issues facing the economy is always welcome. So we welcome Yashwant Sinha’s concerns on the state of the economy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has Acknowledge that the first quarter GDP Figures are a cause of concern. The Economy has problem such as private investment, financial institutions distress and employment. But we have to look at what the government is doing.

One can always have a contrarian view and get statistical data to back it up. It is therefore not surprising that Mr. Sinha chose the wrong figure of 65000 crore as input tax credit demand under GST although the returns for input tax credit claims have not yet been filed. These assumptions of tax credit demand are based on IGST figure alone and therefore wrong estimates.

Second, the negative impact of demonetization was due to the initial liquidity crunch. With fresh currency in circulation by June-end 2017, this was a short term pain.

Also, currency does not have shades of black and white. Black money is determined only on the basis of ownership. With identity now clearly established, tax evasion will be checked and black money traced.

Demonetization has pushed people to move business transactions to banking channels establishing audit trails. This is a prerequisite for successful implementation of the Goods and Services tax (GST). Once the benefits of GST such as impute tax credit and removal of the cascading effects of tax are implemented. Consumer prices will come down. With better tax compliance the government can also lower indirect tax rates. This indication has already been given by the union Finance Ministers.

The complete online structure of the GST network after full implementation by December 2017, will bring ease of doing business (EODB). Once initial transaction are uploaded into the system, other information will be transmitted automatically. With online registration return assessment and refunds without intervention by tax personnel, the day to day life businessmen will become hustle free, similarly, more and more processes. Including e-tendering are being done online through technological innovation. So, Mr. Sinha’s question of raid raj is limited to tracking black money and corruption cases.

For the first time the Government has made a concerted bid to enhance manufacturing in India with EODB. The world bank has recognized 20 economic reform of the Modi Government that will be considered in this year’s international ranking. This will significantly improve India’s EODB ranking. It has helped attract foreign direct investment which is now at an all time high of $62 billion. This indicates faith in the future of the economy.

A major Criticism of the previous UPA Government was policy paralysis and lack of ownership of problems. The current government is active on all fronts. Mr. Modi is personally overseeing stalled projects in infrastructure power and steel under the Pro- Active Government and timely implementation initiative through a three-tier system (PMO Union Government secretaries, and chief secretaries of states). Twenty such meetings of Pragati have led to a cumulative review of 183 Projects with a total investments of 8.79 lakh crore.

The UPA Government compromised loans from public sectors bank. The present government has inherited the NPA problem along with several macroeconomic establishing factors high inflation a fiscal deficit of over 4.5 per cent of GDP and falling GDP growth. The government is now identifying and resolving NPAs through pragati, the insolvency & bankruptcy code and the Benaim properties Act which was passed 28 years back but was not notified.

Indian is among the World’s fastest growing economics, the seventh largest economy by nominal GDP and the third largest by purchasing power parity (World Bank) 2015. But the benefits of this growth are unevenly distributed. As per the Global Wealth Report, 2016. The top one per cent of our population has over 58 per cent of the total wealth of the country. Large scale corruption is the main cause of uneven growth. Curbing corruption and eliminating black money is a key mandate of the present government. Mr. Modi’s initiatives to flight this meninge include the setting up of a special investigation team.

The Foreign Assets Declaration scheme renegotiation of bilateral treaties on double taxation avoidance agreements with Mauritius Cyprus and Singapore the income disclosure scheme (IDS) I & II Banal transactions Amendment Act (2016). Demonetizations deregistration of shell companies and GST, These efforts have helped establish a clean business environment.

The gloom is nowhere in sight with healthy foreign exchange reserves the current account and fiscal deficit under control a strong rupee healthy tax collection boosting government revenue corruption and crony capitalism under check a leak proof and targeted delivery mechanism for financial participation and a proactive government committed to structural reforms. Mr. Modi may be criticked for sqeezing too many reforms into a small time span. He believes in accountability has created a performance matrix and is setting tough targets. His commitment to doubling farmers income by 2022, providing five crore low cost housing units electrification of all villages, electricity to every house, bullets trains a corruption free business ecosystem, self employment, rural roads, regional low cost air connectivity and two lakh km of optical fibre connectivity, all point to his pro poor and business friendly approach.

He was voted to office to change the status-quo and create a new normal. That is what his government is doing.

By Third Quarter Of Current Fiscal, Job Market Set To Revive

September 21, 2017

By Gopal Krishna Agarwal,

The job market has not to be seen only in light of NSO employment data but also include self-employment opportunities created with entrepreneurship development. The job market has significantly undergone change with new set avenues being created with technological advancement and changed economic scenario. The data with regards to jobs have to be looked from a different perspective. With all the macroeconomic parameters being favorable the economy has bottomed up.

GDP growth figures will significantly improve in the coming quarter. Government investment over the period has increased many folds, basically in infrastructure development. PM’s concerted efforts; to revive stalled projects through the PRAGATI initiative has helped many held up projects. These are creating a lot of demand in the economy propelling private investment as well. Projects like bullet train, which catalyze growth, are seeing the light of the day.

Modi government focus on improving manufacturing sector and make India, a global manufacturing hub is important. Globally employment generation primarily emerge from this segment. A new form of employment is being generated with different skills. We have to see the results of developing self employment and entrepreneurship. Youth is waking up to the requirement of different skill sets where new opportunities are emerging exponentially like a wireless network, data scientist, data architect, artificial intelligence, automobile engineer, 3D technician, cyber security expert etc. Even aggregators like Uber and Ola and E-commerce business are giving new working opportunities. People are being trained in new skills.

They are leaving traditional occupations behind. Government efforts on skilling and entrepreneurship development like 5 crore mudra loans and stand up, startup ecosystem is working well. We have reached the third rank in global start-up ecosystem. With corruption and black money under check, transparency and online system of doing business under the new GST and the digital economy regime, ease of doing business (EODB) has gained tremendous momentum.

World Bank has recognized twenty economic reforms of Modi government and are ready to be considered in next EODB ranking. We are expecting significant improvement in next the ranking. Nomura has also estimated that our GDP will grow at 7.1% YOY basis. All this is showing positive sentiments and by the third quarter of current fiscal, the job market is going to go up significantly and is already showing signs of improvement. Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article above are those of the authors’ and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of this publishing house.