India will resist china’s economic imperialism

Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi, at a recent India-United States (US) business summit, invited global investors to invest in India. He told them that India offered a combination of “openness, opportunities and options”; pointed out that India had undertaken deep structural reforms, improved domestic manufacturing and was committed to diversified international trade; and spoke of merging domestic production and consumption with global supply chains.

PM Modi has never shied away from taking tough decisions. The privatisation of the Indian Railways, public sector disinvestments, reducing corporate tax and opening up coal mining to the private sector are measures which may have been unpopular in certain quarters, but are necessary for the long-term health of our economy, particularly in strengthening our manufacturing base.

To achieve the goal of a politically and economically strong India, the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan is a 360-degree initiative to make India an economic superpower. The focus is on five pillars of development: Economy, infrastructure, technology, demography and demand. Our targets are the factors of production. These are land, labour, legislation and liquidity, improving their efficiency and reducing the cost to make our industries globally competitive. This is not restricted to the manufacturing, but targeted at direct benefit transfers to the needy. This has also resulted in demand creation in the economy and helping the vulnerable, particularly farmers, migrant workers and daily wagers.

The campaign for self-reliance has little to do with disengagement with China alone. We discerned the designs of Chinese economic imperialism early on. Our delinking from China began much early than many would like to believe. It began with PM opting out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The Chinese leadership tried hard to pressure India to join RCEP or face isolation in the grouping’s 16 countries. But the PM stood firm. In 2010, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government signed Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with 10 Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) countries, the benefits of which were reaped by China as well. Reduced custom duties from these countries were creating an inverted duty structure in our domestic manufacturing sector, destroying local industries and converting manufacturers into traders.

Therefore, in the Union Budget in 2019, the government increased import duties on over 56 items spread across eight classifications. Items such as toys saw an increase of 60% from 20% earlier. All these efforts were to protect domestic industries from the onslaught of dumping and competition. Without first strengthening domestic manufacturing by providing a level-playing field, and reducing costs and increasing the efficiency of factors of production, we cannot open the floodgates for imports.

The Chinese leadership had almost managed to get the UPA government to accept RCEP. There are reports to suggest this. India’s signing of FTAs with Asean countries, without strengthening India’s domestic industries before opening them to regional and global competition, shows that the country’s interests were compromised. One important question must be asked. Why did India, which was a global leader in the pharma sector, gradually concede Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API) production to China? The UPA must answer this.

As of now, with the coronavirus pandemic, the world has realised the risks of over-dependence on supply chains from one nation. We rose to the occasion by identifying this as a risk diversion strategy for global manufacturing companies. It provided India an opportunity to deal domestically with the challenges thrown up by the coronavirus. Further, the Chinese aggression at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) at the Galwan Valley forced the government to immediately impose trade curbs and ban 59 apps from China. This is being hailed as a timely move, though certain economists and industrialists have sounded a note of caution on its long-term impact. But their logic seems based on the line propagated by the Chinese media and China’s government officials.

Fortunately, what we import from China is mostly in areas in which India has the domestic technology to leverage for import substitution. Most of these items do not come under the essential consumption requirements category and are generally non-merit goods. Except in pharma, which China dominates through the supply chain of APIs, it has not been able to penetrate strategic sectors.

India’s manufacturers need to seize this golden opportunity in sectors such as toys, electrical equipment, electronics, minerals, chemicals, iron and steel, plastics, furniture, sports goods, musical instruments, fertilisers and apps. Earlier, the ministry of commerce and industry had identified 12 such sectors; these now constitute 20 sectors. And 371 items have been identified for increasing import duties including non-tariff barriers on some of them.

If you look into the comparative advantage theory domestically, we have to focus on areas such as agriculture, particularly food processing, textiles, affordable housing, health care and education, and increase their contribution to India’s Gross Domestic Product. These sectors can generate large-scale employment and are looking up. This will be our path to recovery.

Gopal Krishna Agarwal is the Bharatiya Janata Party’s national spokesperson on economic affairs

The views expressed are personal

Never waste a crisis

By Gopal Krishna Agarwal,

India is doing a commendable job in fighting the Covid-19 pandemic. It took the epidemic seriously unlike some other countries when it emerged on the global horizon and has generally been ahead of the curve. Whether it’s screening of international passengers, quarantine or announcing lockdown, the central government has never been found wavering or hesitant.

The first priority obviously is to save people from this virus. The lockdown was announced when the cases were still very few. It reduced the speed of the spread of the virus and gave the government time to set up the required health infrastructure. Then the focus of the government shifted to mitigating the hardships of the people due to the lockdown. And now, rightly so, the focus is gradually shifting to the health of the economy.

It is an understatement to say that the economy has been severely affected by the lockdown. The global economic engine has come to a sudden stop because of the pandemic, as one country after another declared lockdown. The Indian economy, which was on a recovery path after a slower growth phase, has been brought down to its knees.

Covid-19 is a non-linear and uncertain event. Proper action at the right time alone will ensure that the cost of recovery is not huge. The likelihood of post-Covid-19 recovery being a V-, U-or L-shaped curve will depend on the road map ahead. The gov- ernment intervention will be commensurate with the severity of the global recession. India’s strengths are its demography, democracy and demand and while the first two will remain unaffected by the crisis, demand will diminish due to economic uncertainty, job losses and financial problems. Therefore, post Covid-19, the government will focus on reviving the demand.

The business of SMEs and other small enterprises are disrupted in a major way. In the absence of public social safety measures, compelling the private sector to bear its cost is not justified. There already is a twin risk aversion in the credit market for the SMEs. Credit guarantee schemes have to be made more robust and the government will have to actively consider sharing some part of the credit risk. Though, availability of credit is not the only – issue for the SMEs, going concern and business – continuity plans require a strong balance sheet which is missing among the SMEs.

The trend of de-globalization, which started after the global financial crisis and gained strength after the 2016 US elections, is expected to accelerate. The world will see the reshaping of international relations. Non-economic dimensions will become more important as countries try to become self-sufficient. However, countries will not return to autarky as no country can be fully self-sufficient in the present era. Though India will try to be self-reliant in critical products, that will not be achieved merely by increasing import duties – global competition is an important factor in boosting domestic productivity.

The shutdown in China due to the Covid-19 out- break was a rude shock for countries. It highlighted their vulnerability due to dependence on one country. A number of multinational corporations are working on a risk diversification strategy, but India will not automatically benefit from such a shift out of China: The success of Bangladesh and Vietnam over India is a sobering reminder. Old rulebooks that hamper private initiative will have to be scrapped by the government.

The government can formulate a new National Manufacturing Policy to make manufacturing in India competitive. The cost of doing business is very high compared to other countries. The cost of compliance, logistics, power, land and so on are very high. This is the right time to undertake factor market reforms, particularly land and labor. The crisis has also shown the importance of migrant workers in keeping the wheels of the economy moving. Going forward, we need a large infrastructure set-up for migrant workers so that the events of mass exodus do not reoccur.

The crisis has brought in sharp focus the aspect of state capacity. Our private sector has immense potential and in times of crises such as the present the government will need to have in place a mechanism to rope in the private sector to augment the state capacity. The use of big data and artificial intelligence (AI) for good governance, policies and welfare programmed can bring massive improvement in state capacity. India’s earlier digital story based on Aadhaar is very different from that in the US and China, and has set an example for the world. Using Al to identify critical areas for government intervention and scenario planning have the potential for huge application in better execution of schemes, predicting natural calamities, agricultural output and so on. India has the talent to do it.

The lockdown will be lifted in a staggered manner and after detailed planning and a standard operating procedure. With inflation remaining under control and lower oil prices benefiting India, the Centre may use special provisions under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act to go for a one-time off-balance sheet borrowing with a declared timeline. The borrowing limits on states under the FRBM Act may have to be relaxed for the time being.

Reviving demand, increasing liquidity and big- ticket reforms is the road map. India is fighting the current crisis with all its might and we will set the path for other nations to follow.

The author is national spokesperson of the BJP for economic affairs

Budget 2020 – Sabka Saath, Sabka Vishwas, Sabka Vikas

This is an Epoch-making Budget 2020. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has kept in mind all the segments of the economy. It enforces Prime Ministers Shri Narendra Modi’s vision of achieving 5 trillion dollar economy by 2024, with Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas.

The Government has not bogged down by the resource constraints and has continued with its spending on infrastructure and asset creation. It has taken care that the social welfare schemes of the government have sufficient funds allocation and can continue on its path of benefit to the last man (Antyodaya). Though the fiscal deficit targets have been relaxed the government gives a fiscal consolidation path and has also, for the first time, annexed a list of off-budget borrowing in the budget document and settled a very significant debate about transparency in government borrowing. All previous governments had been resorting to off-budget borrowing like oil bonds etc. but were not disclosing it. FM has estimated a nominal GDP growth rate of 10 per cent for the coming year, keeping inflation below 4 per cent our real GDP growth will be above 6 per cent.

The budget focuses on wealth creation and pro-business policy talking about minimal government intervention under the Economic development Theme of the Budget. For resource generation, it has desisted from increasing direct or indirect taxes. The government has reiterated its commitment to recognizing and honouring honest taxpayer and is taking care of unwarranted harassment by a tax authority by bringing accountability in the tax administration. Announcement of Taxpayer’s Rights Charter within the statute is an important step in this direction. Provision for statutory taxpayer’s right exists only in three other countries worldwide. 

Direct personal tax slabs have been changed to benefit middle-income segment and taxpayers up to income level of Rs 15 lakh will be benefited if they opt for a new regime of personal tax. FM has also promised that many tax concessions enjoyed currently by individual taxpayers will be incorporated in the new regime also depending upon nature, the option can be revised by the taxpayers on a yearly basis.  Deposit insurance for the scheduled banks has been increased to Rs 5 lakh from the current level of Rs 1 lakh only per depositor, about which there was very little awareness amongst the general public. This will help in building more confidence in the banking industries, bringing transparency. 

Cooperative sector gets the benefit of lowering of tax structure as in the case of reduced taxes for the corporate sector, helping farmers’ producer organisations, milk cooperatives and other charitable institutions operating under a cooperative structure. Even registration for charitable organisations under 80G and 12A has been made online provisionally so that they face less harassment and can start their activities early. 

The agriculture sector has been sufficiently provided for with the 16 new initiatives announced under Aspirational India theme for rural and agriculture sector. Financial market’s long-pending demand for the abolition of dividend distribution tax (DDT) has been accepted. Stressed assets under MSME has been given an extended one year time period for resolution and limit to go to resolution mechanism has been reduced to Rs 100 crore from earlier Rs 500 crore. The tax audit requirement has been increased to a turnover of Rs 5 crore. MSME also meets its demand for invoice financing under TReDS. Startup ecosystem gets several hand-holding supports like payment of taxes for ESOPs only at the point of sale. GIG economy, involving technological development, gets a big push from the government. Education sector seas several reforms for connecting academic to industries, providing them with industrial internship and skilling etc. setting of online educational facilities and new Police and Cybercrime University are an important development. Employment through National Recruitment Agency for non-gazetted posts will smoothen the employment process and make it completely transparent.  

Under the theme of Economic Development, the government provides for all the important sectors like Technological Textile Centres, power, renewable energy, connectivity like airports, seaports and railways. Finance minister works out a mechanism for the ambitious plan of investment of Rs 103 lakh crore under National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) identifying 6500 projects through Center, State and foreign direct investments (FDI). Government has also opened up its bond markets for foreign sovereign debt investment in rupee denomination, securing against exchange fluctuations, a concern shown earlier for sovereign debt funds.  The budget also provides for gap funding for new hospitals in the aspirational districts for servicing Ayushman health care scheme and provision for drinking water. Under the GST announcement, the government has provided for its commitment to compensate the states for increased 14 per cent revenue every year through compensation cess.

Government has also taken care of inverted duty structure that has seeped in the domestic industry under the Free Trade Agreement (FTA). It also protects domestic industries from dumping securing domestic industries through clauses like country of origin value addition. Income accruing to NRI in zero-tax countries like UAE will be taxed on income generated in India only, a logical step to fill the gap in taxation. 

Discrimination of civil acts under Company Law and removal fear in the corporate sector has been hailed across every section. Faceless appeal provision and Vivad se Vishwas scheme will help to resolve long-pending tax disputes in tax administration and will also release funds for the government. Disinvestment road map will help reduce government dependence of tax revenue and improvement of the primary and secondary bond market will help reduce the dependence of corporate sector on bank finance alone.

Gopal Krishna Agarwal

He is National Spokesperson BJP and has a keen understanding of economic affairs.

Budget will need to trackle covid hurdles

The government is aware of the pain points. It will make required interventions in order to propel our economy to the next level

Global economies have been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, and India is no exception. Post-pandemic economic recovery is a big challenge for all of us. Governments and central banks across the world resorted to fiscal and monetary measures to ward off the negative impact of the crisis. These measures included liquidity infusion, credit enhancement, deficit financing, direct benefit transfers, even the printing of currency and distribution of helicopter money.

These stimulus packages did help in the economic recovery, but disruptions in the global supply chain and the resultant strengthening of commodity prices, and liquidity overhang have led to inflation. Now, when the central banks have started sucking the liquidity out of the system to contain inflation and governments are reversing the stimulus in the interests of fiscal consolidation, a sustainable global economic recovery seems to be a distant goal.

The Indian government also came out with a stimulus package in the form of Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India), which had several measures but stopped short of printing currency, and did not resort to the distribution of helicopter money. So, post pandemic, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is comfortably placed in its fight to contain inflation. It can reverse the excess liquidity from the economy in a phased manner while continuing to extend credit support to the needy segments. The government also has ample space for fiscal consolidation.

Our economy, at present, is in a resilient mode and we are witnessing a sharp post-pandemic recovery, thanks to the farsighted approach of the Narendra Modi government and RBI. This confidence in our economy is not only visible domestically, but also seen within the global investor community. Our macro-economic parameters are strong across segments. The government and RBI. This confidence in our economy is not only visible domestically, but also seen within the global investor community. Our macro-eco-nomic parameters are strong across segments. The government is continuing with its infrastructure spending and schemes such as Production Linked Incentives (PLI) are bringing the desired results in the domestic manufacturing sector.

It is against this background that the budget for 2022-23 will be presented. The first requirement to put economic growth on a sustainable path is to identify current challenges and to come up with a roadmap to address them.

The economic repercussion of the pandemic in India has not been equitable and it has been particularly harsh on the informal sector.

Consequently, there has been a deepening of income and wealth dis- parity in society. The last few years have seen very little growth in aggregate private consumption in the economy. Any support for the informal sector will help in increasing private consumption as well.

Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) are the growth engines of the economy, but were severely affected by Covid-19 related disruptions. They require working capital and other credit facilities. It is expected that the government will extend the credit guarantee scheme for MSMEs. There is also a fear that the looming liquidity crisis might transform into a solvency crisis; it would, therefore, be advisable that the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) provide additional relief to small firms. There is a growing con- sensus that this segment requires new instruments for private capital formation.

It is expected that the government will focus on fiscal consolidation from the coming financial year . However, there is considerableuncertainty regarding its pace. A fiscal consolidation road map will help in the orderly working of the financial and capital markets. However, the glide path of fiscal consolidation should not be too steep.

Another important issue is the rapid rise in com commodity prices, affecting businesses because they are not able to pass on the increased costs to consumers due to weak demand. Reducing import duties on such products will tame costs and reduce inflation, particularly the wholesale price index (WPI). This will also help manufacturing industries, which were adversely impacted due to the rising costs of base metal and raw material.

Though Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections are increasing, over the years, the average tax rate under GST has come down to around 11.6%, much below revenue neutral GST rate of 15-15.5% as envisaged at the time of GST implementation. There is space to improve the average tax rate to bring it to around 15.5%. The government must improve the tax to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio.

Corporate tax rate has also been reduced to around 25% on average. However, for the tax-paying middle and upper middle class, the highest marginal rate of taxation is above 40% right now. If the government introduces infrastructure bonds, which provide for additional investment related deduction from taxable income, then not only will it bring down its total tax liability but also generate critical financial resources to invest in infrastructure.

Disinvestment has been one of the focus areas of the Narendra Modi government and the driving principle behind this is the government’s belief that public money locked in such assets should generate higher returns. However, a section of analysts and Opposition parties have tried to portray this as an exclusively revenue generating measure. The government needs to reaffirm the principles of better utilisation of public capital, underlying the disinvestment plan in the budget. Monetisation of assets of public sector undertaking has not been taken up as envisaged earlier and will require renewed efforts.

Our government is well aware of these pain points. The public is confident that it will make required interventions in this budget to propel our economy to the next level and this positive sentiment is quite visible in the business ecosystem. The government will continue on its path of eco- nomic reforms to build on this business confidence.

Gopal Krishna Agarwal is the Bharatiya Janata Party’s national spokesperson on economic affairs

The views expressed are personal

हरित अर्थव्यवस्था के लिए प्रेरक बनेगी राष्ट्रीय हाइड्रोजन पॉलिसी

गोपाल कृष्ण अग्रवाल,

राष्ट्रीय प्रवक्ता भारतीय जनता पार्टी

प्रधानमंत्री नरेन्द्र मोदी ने जलवायु परिवर्तन की चुनौतियों से निपटने के लिए वैश्विक अगुवाई करने का भार अपने ऊपर ले लिया है और वे अक्षय ऊर्जा के लिए प्रतिबद्ध हैं। जाहिर है कि अक्षय ऊर्जा लक्ष्यों को प्राप्त करने के लिए शीर्ष नेतृत्व स्तर पर इच्छाशक्ति है। इसी प्रतिबद्धता के कारण, संयुक्त राष्ट्र जलवायु परिवर्तन सम्मेलन (सीओपी-21) के बाद, भारत ने उत्सर्जन मानदंडों को पूरा करने के लिए कुछ साहसिक कदम उठाए हैं। नतीजतन, पेरिस जलवायु परिवर्तन शिखर सम्मेलन के बाद, भारत के उत्सर्जन में वर्ष 2005 के स्तर पर 28 फीसदी की कमी आई है।

एक रिपोर्ट के अनुसार, भारत 2030 तक उत्सर्जन को 30 फीसदी तक कम करने के लक्ष्य को हासिल करने के लगभग निकट है। भारत ने सौर ऊर्जा को वैश्विक रूप से अपनाने में तेजी लाने के लिए फ्रांस के साथ मिलकर अंतरराष्ट्रीय सौर गठबंधन बनाया है, जिसका प्रधान कार्यालय भारत में है। भारत की एक अन्य पहल में 2050 तक 80-85 प्रतिशत तक बिजली की मांग को नवीकरणीय स्रोतों के माध्यम से पूरा करना है।

भारत, संयुक्त राष्ट्र के सतत विकास लक्ष्यों के लिए भी प्रतिबद्ध है और उसके सभी 17 लक्ष्य सरकार की नीतियों में शामिल हैं। भारत ने हाल ही गैर-जीवाश्म स्रोतों से 40 फीसदी बिजली उत्पादन क्षमता का लक्ष्य हासिल किया है।

बिजली उत्पादन में हिस्सेदारी

भारत में बिजली उत्पादन में कोयले की हिस्सेदारी 44 फीसदी से अधिक है जबकि तेल का योगदान लगभग 25 फीसदी है। बायोएनर्जी और सीएनजी का हिस्सा क्रमश: 21 और 5.8 प्रतिशत है, जबकि परमाणु और सौर ऊर्जा का हिस्सा काफी कम है।

कोयला जलवायु के लिए खतरे की वजह है, जबकि तेल की कीमतें आसमान छू रही हैं। जैसे-जैसे भारत औद्योगिकीकरण की ओर बढ़ रहा है, लगता है प्रति व्यक्ति ऊर्जा खपत, वर्तमान में जो 30 फीसदी है, बढ़कर 2040 में लगभग दोगुनी हो जाएगी। इसका श्रेय इस तथ्य में निहित है कि भारत अब विश्वस्तर पर विनिर्माण उद्योग स्थापित करने के लिए दूसरा सबसे आकर्षक देश बन गया है।

हालांकि बड़ी पनबिजली परियोजनाओं को लेकर कुछ चिंताएं भी हैं, लेकिन भारत में इसकी काफी संभावनाएं हैं। छोटी जलविद्युत परियोजनाएं महत्त्वपूर्ण पहल हो सकती हैं, हालांकि ये प्रोजेक्ट्स वर्तमान में लगभग न के बराबर हैं। पर, ठीक इसी वक्त भारत अब दुनिया में सौर ऊर्जा क्षमता में पांचवां और पवन ऊर्जा क्षमता में चौथा सबसे बड़ा देश है। इस ऊर्जा का इस्तेमाल हरित हाइड्रोजन (शून्य कार्बन उत्सर्जन ईंधन) के उत्पादन के लिए किया जा सकता है जो पूरे ऊर्जा क्षेत्र में बड़ा गेमचेंजर साबित होगा।

हाइड्रोजन ऊर्जा का बड़ा स्रोत है। हालांकि वर्तमान में कई चुनौतियां हैं और भारत इस क्षेत्र में बड़ा योगदानकर्ता भी नहीं है। पर जिस तरह से निजी निवेश और सरकार आगे बढ़ रही है, उससे देश को बड़ा लाभ मिल सकता है। ऊर्जा सुरक्षा, डीकार्बोनाइजेशन और कम कार्बन उत्सर्जन के लक्ष्य को पूरा करने में हाइड्रोजन मदद करेगा।

एक अनुमान के अनुसार, भविष्य की चुनौतियों से निपटने के लिए इस पर 500 बिलियन डॉलर से अधिक निवेश की जरूरत होगी। कई निजी कंपनियों और एनटीपीसी जैसी कुछ सरकारी कंपनियों ने भी बड़े लक्ष्य तय किए हैं। 2030 तक 316 बिलियन डॉलर के निवेश प्रतिबद्धता की उम्मीद है। सरकार की नीतियां सहायक हैं और भारत इस क्षेत्र का बड़ा खिलाड़ी बन सकता है।

अनुकूल पारिस्थितिकी तंत्र

मौजूदा वक्त में, हाइड्रोजन टेक्नोलॉजी के लिए लागत बड़ी चुनौती है। चीन से सौर ऊर्जा क्षेत्र मामले में भी बड़ी प्रतिस्पर्धा है। एक बड़ी चुनौती जो निजी क्षेत्र की तरफ से मिल सकती है, वह है उच्च ब्याज लागत। हालांकि सरकार ब्याज लागत को लगातार कम कर रही है, पर चुनौती से निपटने के लिए ऊर्जा के अधिक स्रोतों और धन की जरूरत है। अगर नई पहल और अनुसंधान के साथ नई एवं बेहतर तकनीक अमल में लाई जाए तो उत्पादन चुनौतियों का सामना किया जा सकता है।

चुनौतियों को समझने और उसके समाधान पर भी सरकार काम कर रही है। परिवहन और कच्चे माल की उपलब्धता जैसी चिंताओं के मद्देनजर सरकार नई औद्योगिक और संचालन क्रियान्वयन नीतियों पर काम कर रही है। सरकार का मैन्युफैक्चरिंग बेस बनाने पर भी फोकस है। आत्मनिर्भर भारत की संकल्पना के तहत सरकार ने बिजली क्षेत्र के उन्नयन, ग्रिड में सुधार, ट्रांसमिशन को बेहतर बनाने और डिस्कॉम में वृद्धि आदि के लिए 90,000 करोड़ रुपए की भी प्रतिबद्धता जताई है।

निजी कंपनियां और सरकार दोनों इस तथ्य से सहमत हैं कि हाइड्रोजन और सिलिकॉन ऐसे नए क्षेत्र हैं जो देश के लिए बहुत अधिक सम्पदा उत्पन्न कर सकते हैं। सरकार ने राष्ट्रीय हाइड्रोजन मिशन की स्थापना के लिए लगभग 1500 करोड़ रुपए की प्रतिबद्धता जताई है। विभिन्न नीतियां लागू करने के साथ ही रोडमैप बनाए जा रहे हैं। अंतत: जब उद्देश्य स्पष्ट हैं, स्वच्छ और हरित ऊर्जा के लिए उच्चतम स्तर की प्रतिबद्धता है, ऐसे में भारत निश्चित रूप से अपने लक्ष्यों को हासिल करने में सक्षम होगा।

सामग्री व्यापार को बढ़ावा देने के लिए रसद समर्थन मामले में सरकार नई नेशनल लॉजिस्टिक पॉलिसी लेकर आ रही है। यह एकीकृत रसद केंद्रों, हाइड्रोजन भंडारण, परिवहन, भंडारण और बंदरगाहों से जुड़े मुद्दों का समाधान करेगी। इसी तरह, कॉरपोरेट क्षेत्र की बैलेंसशीट में पर्यावरणीय लागत के समावेशन से परियोजना मूल्यांकन में उचित मदद मिलेगी।

बैलेंसशीट में पर्यावरण के इन नवाचारों को अभिलेखबद्ध करना महत्त्वपूर्ण मुद्दा है जहां अधिक शोध और उत्थान हो सकता है। इंस्टीट्यूट ऑफ चार्टर्ड अकाउंटेंट्स ऑफ इंडिया (आइसीएआइ) के फाइनेंस अकाउंटिंग प्रोफेशनल्स यह नवाचार कर सकते हैं। हाइड्रोजन इकोनॉमी के बढ़ावे के लिए कम लागत वाली फंडिंग के ज्यादा स्रोत होने चाहिए और सरकार इस दिशा में कदम उठा रही है।

After Bengal, BJP’s Special focus on kerala

 By Gopal Krishna Agarwal, 

Thiruvananthapuram: It’s official now. BJP is going to shift its focus heavily on Kerala. The party leadership is just waiting for the election in West Bengal to be over. To achieve the political target, the party would draw new strategies to confront the CPM head on.

The efforts would be to hold the CPM responsible for the economic crisis and development stagnation the state encounters, said Gopal Krishna Agarwal, BJP national spokesperson in charge of Kerala and a chartered accountant by profession.

“We have stopped the practice of contesting elections for the sake of it in Kerala. After West Bengal, BJP’s political focus is largely on Kerala. It’s only bound to increase in the future,” said Agarwal who is in the state in connection with the assembly election.

The party, he said, is confident of winning the hearts of Kerala voters and form the government in a matter of a few years.

“This is not a pipe dream. We just need to explain our development agenda to the people and convince them. If a state like UP can achieve tremendous strides in terms of economic development in a span of a few years, Kerala with its intellectual capital, spices, and tourism potential, can do wonders,” Agarwal said, adding that governments that always fight with the Centre won’t be able to make major developmental strides.

Agarwal, who had earlier been attached to the West Bengal election, said it was the prominent presence of Marxists that scares investors away from Kerala.

“The basic concept and attitude of Marxists towards wealth creation is flawed. They talk about distribution of wealth. For that the basic requisite is creation of wealth. But unfortunately, Marxists won’t address the aspect of wealth creation. Private capital is still an anathema for them. They can’t perform the role of a facilitator,” he said.

Good economics is good politics, he said and claimed that the economic policies of the BJP government under the leadership of Narendra Modi are focused on long-term development and growth. The new amendments brought in by the Centre on agri-culture laws, he claimed, would benefit lakhs of farmers while they would go against the interest of a few others.

 “Our reform initiatives focus on long-term agenda. It is this point we want to reiterate in Kerala. Once in power, BJP would shows the dogged and proven commitment towards the infrastructure and industrial development of Kerala. Establishment of waterways, food processing units, value addition of spices, rubber and agriculture produce would be our fo- cus. Once an investment-friendly ecosystem is established, economic growth and employment opportunities would follow. These are not claims. We have practised and proven it in the states we are in power,” Agarwal said.

Our reform initiatives focus on agenda. It is this pointer long-term in Kerala. Once in power, BJP would show the dogged and proven commitment towards the infrastructure and industrial development of Kerala. Once an investment-friendly ecosystem is established, economic growth and employment opportunities would follow. These are not claims. We have practised and proven it in the states we are in power

 Gopal Krishna Agarwal, BJP NATIONAL SPOKESPERSON INCHARGE OF KERALA

मेल खाते हैं टूलकिट निर्देश कांग्रेस नेताओं के वक्तव्यों से’

विपक्ष महाभारत के धृतराष्ट्र की बात याद रखे – ‘वयं पंचाधिकम् शतम्’ अर्थात् दुश्मन से लड़ने के लिए हम एक सौ पांच हैं, सौ और पांच नहीं

टूलकिट कांग्रेस प्रायोजित है या नहीं, इसका फैसला कानून करेगा

महामारी एंव आपदा प्रबंधन किसी भी सरकार लिए मुश्किल होता है। जब भी देश में ऐसा कोई संकट आया है सारा देश संकट से निजात पाने के लिए सामूहिक रूप से खड़ा हो गया। कोरोना की दूसरी लहर ने सभी को हिला कर रख दिया है। इसके गहरे जख्म लम्बे समय तक जहन में रहेंगे।

कोरोना से जंग लड़ रहे फ्रंटलाइन कार्यकर्ता रात-दिन एक कर रहे है। सभी को उम्मीद है कि विपक्ष सकारात्मक भूमिका निभाएगा, पर विपक्ष ने पूरी तरह निराश किया है।

राहुल गांधी जी तो केवल ट्विटर पर ही जिम्मेदारी की इतिश्री कर रहे हैं। जमीन पर कांग्रेस के कार्यकर्ता बहुत कम काम करते हुए दिखे। जो कुछ लोग कर रहे थे, उनकी मंशा पर भी प्रश्नचिह्न खड़ा हो गया है कि क्या वे एजेंडे के तहत ऐसा कर रहे थे, क्योंकि टूलकिट में सोची-समझी रणनीति के तहत अस्पताल के बेड जानबूझ कर खाली रखने की साजिश का जिक्र किया गया है। टूलकिट में कई अहम खुलासे हुए है। ल जिसने भी यह टूलकिट लिखा है, वह इरादतन बहुत ही घिनौना उद्देश्य लेकर कार्य कर रहा है। कोरोना वायरस के ज्यादा संक्रामक स्ट्रेन को वह भारत सेव जोड़ने की साजिश रच रहा है। यही नहीं, मोदी स्ट्रेन जैसे नेरेशन को बढ़ाने की बात स्पष्ट रूप से लिखी गई। भारत की त्रासदी को राजनीतिक लाभ के लिए इस्तेमाल करने का निर्देश देने का काम सुनियोजित ढंग से इसके जरिए किया जा रहा है।

 टूलकिट, कांग्रेस द्वारा प्रायोजित है या नहीं, इसका फैसला कानून करेगा। यह शीघ्र हो, इसकी जिसने भी यह टूलकिट लिखा है, वह इरादतन बहुत ही घिनौना उद्देश्य लेकर कार्य कर रहा है। कोरोना वायरस के ज्यादा संक्रामक स्ट्रेन को वह भारत से जोड़ने की साजिश रच रहा है। यही नहीं, मोदी स्ट्रेन जैसे नेरेशन को बढ़ाने की बात स्पष्ट रूप से लिखी गई। भारत की त्रासदी को राजनीतिक लाभ के लिए इस्तेमाल करने का निर्देश देने का काम सुनियोजित ढंग से इसके जरिए किया जा रहा है।

टूलकिट, कांग्रेस द्वारा प्रायोजित है या नहीं, इसका फैसला कानून करेगा। यह शीघ्र हो, इसकी आवश्यकता भी है। लेकिन प्रथमदृष्टया यह स्पष्ट है कि जिसने भी इसे लिखा है वह कांग्रेस की कार्यकर्ता है और उनके रिसर्च विभाग के प्रमुख के साथ काम करती है, और जैसे ही यह विषय चर्चा में आया उन्होंने अपना ट्विटर एवं लिंक्डइन खाता निरस्त कर दिया। दूसरा अहम विषय है कि अगर हम कांग्रेस नेताओं और कार्यकर्ताओं के सोशल मीडिया पोस्ट और वक्तव्यों को जमीनी स्तर पर देखें तो वे सभी इस टूलकिट में लिखे निर्देशों पर चलते स्पष्ट नजर आते हैं। राहुल गांधी के ट्विटर हैंडल को ही देख लें। कांग्रेस समर्थकों के ट्वीट्स देख लें, वे इस टूलकिट के निर्देशों से मेल खाते हैं।

जब भी किसी देश में कोई बड़ी आपदा आती है तो त्रासदी को पूरी तरह से नहीं रोका जा सकता। दूसरी लहर के घातक प्रभाव हम सभी झेल रहे है। तीसरी लहर, विशेषकर ग्रामीण क्षेत्रों पर इसके असर, की चिंता भी भारत को सता रही है। ब्लैक फंगस बीमारी भी घातक रूप ले रही है। वैश्विक स्तर पर भी इस महामारी में भारत की तरह ही कई सरकारें कई समस्याओं से जूझ रही हैं, जबकि वहां स्वास्थ्य सेवाओं का स्तर भारत से कहीं बेहतर था। जरूरी है कि हम इस लड़ाई को सामूहिक रूप से लड़ें। राजनीतिक लाभ- हानि, जन त्रासदी से बढ़कर नहीं है।

इस लड़ाई में हमारा सबसे बड़ा हथियार टीकाकरण का कार्यक्रम ही रहेगा। भारत का सौभाग्य है कि कोवैक्सीन यहां तैयार की गई। उसका उत्पादन जुलाई 2021 तक 35 करोड़ और दिसंबर अंत तक 216 करोड़ हो जाएगा। डीआरडीओ ने एक नई दवाई 2-डीजी के भी इस्तेमाल की अनुमति दे दी है जो बीमारी में हमारा महत्त्वपूर्ण औजार साबित होगी। बतौर डॉ. के.के. अग्रवाल ‘द शो मस्ट गो ऑन’ की भावना से हम इस विपत्ति से शीघ्र निजात पाएंगे।

मेरा विपक्ष से निवेदन है कि महाभारत में धृतराष्ट्र की बात को याद रखें – ‘वयं पंचाधिकम् शतम्।’ अर्थात् दुश्मन से लड़ने के लिए हम एक सौ पांच हैं, सौ और पांच नहीं।

गोपाल कृष्णा अग्रवाल

राष्ट्रीय प्रवक्ता भारतीय जनता पार्टी

India can’t lose out on this window of economic reforms

By Gopal Krishna Agarwal,

There is a marked difference between the agitating farmers and the anti-social, ultra-Left, and pro-Khalistani elements who are piggybacking on them. Understanding this difference is important for citizens in general, and politicians in particular. One, this agitation is not merely a law and order issue, and dealing with it as such will be a mistake. Two, it is not focused on the interest of the farmers, and it is also not about the three farm laws alone — so any effort to explain the benefits of these laws will not cut any ice. Three, there are emerging strains between two different factions — the Sikhs of Punjab, concentrated at the Singhu border, and Jats from western Uttar Pradesh, stationed at the Ghazipur border. While those at Singhu are averse to any political intervention, at Ghazipur, Rakesh Tikait has shown indications of political ambition.

How the government deals with these two strains will be important in the coming days. The plot has got thicker with global players, spanning both State and non-State actors, jumping on to the bandwagon. All of this makes it clear that this is a political movement against the Narendra Modi government, and it has to be dealt with politically. The farm laws are good for agriculture and will benefit farmers to a large extent by creating an alternative and transparent ecosystem for attracting private investment in this capital-deficient sector, which has been starved of market reforms for decades. But leaders of the movement insist on a repeal of the laws and will not accept any amendments. The government has already bent backwards, agreeing to more than a dozen amendments, allaying concerns on Minimum Support Price, and offering to suspend these three laws for up to 18 months, which will make them ineffective till that time.

The government’s reluctance to repeal the laws stems from the conviction about the need for market-oriented reforms in the sector and increasing the role of private players in the agri-economy. This stand has been reiterated over two decades by agro-economists, parliamentary standing committees, empowered committees of the state agriculture ministers and several commissions. If this moment of reckoning is lost, it will cause irreparable damage to the democratic polity of the country. The question, thus, is, will India move towards anarchy? Will there be tyranny of the unelected, or will we respect democratic institutions such as Parliament, the Supreme Court and the process of law- making as envisaged in the Constitution?

Reforms are difficult. Benefits come with a time lag and are spread thin, while their adverse impact on certain stakeholders are marked and immediate. Reforms need extraordinary political capital, and so the political class is reluctant to carry them out. As such, we have not seen many major reforms since 1991 (except the Goods and Services Tax and Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016); even the original ones were limited and carried out under compulsion of imminent sovereign default. The leadership at that time could not muster the courage to undertake major reforms in land, labour and agriculture segments. We lost an opportunity in the Land Acquisition (Amendment) Act, and if this golden opportunity is lost, we may not have any appetite left to undertake mega reforms. There are no more low-hanging fruits available for reforms.

left to political class alone. Politics will be what it is with limitations in a democratic ecosystem. Let us all rise to the occasion.

Gopal Krishna Agarwal is a national spokesperson

of the Bharatiya Janata Party 

‘India has become engine of growth for global economy’

By Gopal Krishna Agarwal

National Spokesperson of BJP,

While many countries in Europe are reeling under recession, India is an outlier, one of the fastest growing economies in the world and attracting the highest fdi

India has become the engine of growth for the global economy under the present government at the Centre, headed by Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. When we came to power in 2014, our economy was facing twin balance sheet problem, the banks were extremely weak and the corporate sector was highly leveraged and not in a position to service debts. Due to several initiatives, the economy is deleveraged and the banking sector is strong now, says Gopal Krishna Agarwal, National Spokesperson of Bharatiya Janata Party, in an exclusive interaction with Bizz Buzz

What is your view about India becoming $5 trillion economy?

Very heartening to know that, Indian GDP is moving towards $5 trillion, not only Indian economy is doing good, it is the fastest growing major economy of the world for two consecutive years, and is poised to be the same for the coming year too. In fact, India has become the engine of growth for the global economy. When we came to power in 2014, our economy was facing twin balance sheet problem, the banks were extremely weak and the corporate sector was highly leveraged and not in a position to service debts. Due to several initiatives, the economy is deleveraged and the banking sector is strong now. Banking Sector reforms include NPA resolution, IBC and Capital infusion. Thus, the country’s economy is deleveraged, and can go for fresh investments from the private sector. Leadership and vision makes all the difference, it was possible due to able macroeconomic management by Modi government.

What is your view on inflation? Inflation has come down from double digit to less than 5 per cent to at 4.25 per cent retail inflation and food inflation at 2.91 per cent. What is your comment on GDP growth? As per NSSO data Indian GDP growth rate is at 7.2 per cent (despite global headwind) and Q4 GDP growth rate is 6.1 per cent YoY, punctures hole in the narration of pent up demand. Earlier, predictions had been made that the GDP growth rate will come down going forwards. But figures show that Indian economy is headed in the right direction and there is considerable momentum. Please throw some light on collection of direct and indirect taxes.
GST collection in April 2023 was at Rs 1.87 lakh crore, despite reduction in average net GST rate to 11.6 per cent as per RBI report. Similarly, direct tax collection was to the tune of Rs 16.61 lakh crore, an increase of 17.63 per cent over last year (FY23). Of course, we achieved this in spite of reduction in corporate tax and higher exemption in personal tax. Your view on other economic parameters like PMI, IIP etc. Purchase manager Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector currently stands at 57.2 whereas in case of services sector, it was at 62, which shows the highest after 13 years. Both are in the expansionary mode. Coming on IIP, the figure for April is 4.2, up from March 2023, shows robust growth in the manufacturing sector. In terms of infrastructure standing, Capex of government has increased to 3.3 per cent of GDP. Average share of Capex to total expenditure is 16.8 per cent, this shows increase in the quality of expenditure of the Union Government.

How can we say that the country was having its robust economy at present? Well, major data points to robust economy include FDI in year 21-22 was $84.8 billion, exports have crossed $770 billion in 2022-23. Moreover, the country has the third largest startup ecosystem and 115 Unicorns. Besides, India boasts of having the highest digital payment at Rs 15,468 lakh crores value digital transactions. Not only that, India ranks first in fintech adoption. We are among the top mobile manufactures in the world. Above all, Air India disinvestment is the best example of privatisation of PSE policy. How can we say that govt is moving in the right direction? Govt has been working in a team spirit with the financial institutions particularly RBI and Ministry of Finance. The test of independence of an institution is not an adversarial relation with the govt but working together to make a strong economy. Leadership and vision makes all the difference, able macroeconomic management by Modi government, the counter cyclical measures taken by the RBI and the ministry and staggered approach in the fiscal stimulus package- Aatma Nirbhar Bharat Package have helped the Indian economy to recover post Covid, and manage inflation, recession and fiscal deficit. Give some examples of formalisation of economy and policy reforms. They include GST, E assessment, DBT, financial inclusion, IBC, PLI, fintech, UPI, digital India, audit trail. Can you explain future orientation of Budget? This is visible by facts like AI, renewable energy, blockchain, green hydrogen, connectivity, cultural economy (art, culture, music, dance, food, festival, architecture, tourism).

What are the major achievement of Narendra Modi govt? The major achievements have been management of Covid pandemic and economic recovery package thereafter. The pandemic has caused global disruption among major economies. US the largest economy in the world is facing unprecedented inflation not seen for the last 40 years of its history. One country after another in Europe reeling under recession whether it’s UK, Germany, France and, even China has not come out of the shock it received from the forced lockdown during Covid19. India is an outlier, one of the fastest growing economy in the world, attracting highest FDI. Banks after banks in US and Europe are failing and are going for bankruptcy. There central banks do not seem to have the road map to deal with the situation. They lack institutional capability to oversee crisis. Contrast this the way our government and institution have dealt with the problem of pandemic. Due to visionary approach and concerted efforts of the government and the institutional resilience to meet the crises, all the three major macro-economic parameters inflation, recession and fiscal deficit are in healthy domain. International institutions, Morgan Stanley report points towards healthy growth prospects for the Indian economy. Google’s Economy report says that internet economy of India will grow 5 times between 2023 and 2030 and will contribute about 12-13 percent of GDP. Enablers like Aadhar, UPI, Digi locker, ONDC, Unified Health interface, India stack, Rupay and NPCI network abroad and software services is expected to be a big export growth area. On this background I would like to state that the global interest in India is steaming from the realization that in the coming decades the economic activity is moving toward India. India will be a major driver for global economy. All this is because we have a determined and visionary leadership in Shri Narendra Modi Ji.

BJP Changes of Guard: Impact on India’s Economic Fortune

By Gopal Krishna Agarwal,

Gopal Krishna Agarwal analyses the rise of Narendra modi and its impact on Business sentiments, trade and investments in India.

Narendra Modi chief minister of Gujarat was appointed a member to the parliament Board the highest decision making body of Bharatiya Janata Party in March this year. Later in September, He was declared the Prime Minister Candidate of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). In 200, He Became Gujarat’s CM and after reelection in 2002, 2007 and 2012, heads a corruption free, transparent and an efficient administration in the state. Though regularly attacked for the 2002 Gujarat riots. Modi is also praised for outstanding administration in turning Gujarat into an economic powerhouse. He has been successful in bringing the development plank as an election agenda.

Will India Shine Under NaMo?

Though Modi’s appeal cut across all classes, regions and age groups, it would not be an exaggeration to say that the Indian business community, youth and burg coning middle class are the biggest votaries of Narendra Modi. The fact that the Indian business community, generally obsequious and fawning before government of the day has risked the wrath of the present regime in doing so speaks volumes.

The economy is going through done of the most difficult times in recent memory. The UPA II government instead of navigating the economy through the turbulence caused by global factors, has exacerbated it through clumsy policies, entitlement schemes without proper budgeting and the worst kind of kleptocracy. There are both political and economic factors affecting business sentiments, trade and investments. Politically, we have a situation where there are different centers of power and responsibility. A cabinet in which ministers pull and different directions and a government that a lacks conviction in its own policies. The present macro economic situation is rife with sticky inflation, rising fiscal as well as current account deficits falling rupee slow pace of reforms and an overall policy paralysis. These two sets of factors have dealt crippling blow to business sentiment and trade and investments. We are in a situation where the finance minister of the country is trying to convince global capital to come to India of a time when even Indian capital is looking for markets abroad.

In order to crystal gaze the impact of the rise of Narendra Modi on Business sentiments, trade and investments. It would be pertinent to analyze the philosophy underpinning the policies of the Gujarat Government headed by him. While there is a small but vocal group backed by rival political parties and other vested interest that questions every figure that show Gujarat in positive light, their efforts have failed to hide the state’s inexorable rise under the leadership of Narendra Modi a fact that is now also acknowledged by the international community. This also relegates to the background the claim that figures are being manipulated to present a positive picture

Modi Mantra in Gujarat    

So what are the defining characteristics of Narendra Modi’s style of managements that is relevant from the macro-economic points of view? He has focused on ‘less government and more governance, which broadly means unobtrusive but effective government. His e-governance model with decentralized decision making and power is his major forte. He has also emphasized on a transparent corruption free, consensus oriented good governance model with emphasis on inclusive participation, timely clearance of project proposals focus on infrastructure improvement and revival of agricultural sector.  The government follows the rule of law with efficiency and effectiveness and is accountable to the people. His decision-making is quick and timely and believes in single window clearance as we seen in the case of Tata’s Nano project. Gujarat under Modi’s leadership has excelled in infrastructure development and has created world class linkages acting as a backbone in the present global compitetive scenario. The successful functioning of the BRT public transport system in Ahmedabad is one such shining example. He has been instrumental in creating urban landscape at par with international standards. Gujarat has successfully implemented power sector reforms and is supplying 24*7 powers to 100 percent of villages.

Modi Means Business

The Government under modi would definitely improve business sentiment leading to an increase in both trade and investment. Sustained growth rarely occurs and autopilot. It requires competent leadership at the top. The most fundamental change from the present government would be the absence of the dual power centres. The de jure center of power would also be de facto one. This would impart realism in policy formations which is greatly missing today. The right of centre ideology subscribed to by the BJP and Modi does not see itself in an adversarial relationship vis-à-vis the business community, but as partners to realize the potential of the country. This in itself would be a major change that would affect business sentiment  positively. The NDA under the leadership of BJP was focused on improving physical infrastructure, which would continue under modi. We are trained to think that the best rate the agriculture sector in India can achieve is 4 percent, but this has been believed by Gujarat experience. Where the agricultural sector grew by around 10 percent for more than a decade. We should therefore expect a paradigm shift in the way the agricultural sector would be dealt with under Modi.  This focus on physical infrastructure and agriculture would remove supply bottlenecks and would bring down inflation. Better infrastructure would also make our exports more competitive and boost trade. A lower rate of inflation would allow the monetary authority to lower interest rates and thus revive investments. A focus on urban infrastructure for rural areas and rising rural income would also augment domestic demand, as more than 60 percent of our total population is living in rural areas. It was under the NDA government that the FRBM Act was enacted and fiscal responsibility targets were met. At the National level the BJP is assimilating good governance models of its various state governments and intends to replicate them on a Pan India Basis, whether it is the socially inclusive focus of Madhya Pradesh government or the Public Distribution System (PDS) of the Chhattisgarh government. Modi would also put the economy back on the path of fiscal consolidation considering his treatment of state owned enterprises in Gujarat, it would not be wrong to expect that they would be given operational freedom to achieve efficiency and scale.

First among Equal

How does Narendra Modi fit in the whole scheme of things? It is an undeniable fact that Modi is first among the present day BJP leadership Modi has a very wide acceptance amongst young voters and considering the present Indian demography, is most suited to capture the youth bulge. In the 2014 elections around 120 million voters would be voting for the first time. In is under his leadership that the party has the most realistic chances of surpassing its previous tally of 182 seats. It has been the experience that voters consolidate towards the winner in sight. As far as his ability to bring coalition partners on board is concerned, we already see two parties jockeying to align with BJP in Haryana. These would improve with the elections drawing near. It has anyway been the experience that parties come together to form the government only after elections and very few parties enter into a pre-poll alliance. Future uncertainly harms business sentiments to a great extend but as we move towards overcoming this uncertainty one sees gradual improvement in business sentiment.

People who grudgingly accept the development of Gujarat under Narendra Modi claim that this success cannot be replicated at the Pan Indian level as he would be hamstrung by coalition partners and powerful leaders within BJP unlike Gujarat where he virtually has free rein. We believe that not only would he be able to repeat the success of Gujarat, But would also surpass it. It should be noted that considering the very limited powers of state in India. Narendra modi’s   achievements are indeed commendable. He has infused new hope and confidence in the people of the country. Particularly the youth that comprises 65 percent of the total population. He has been able to generate the can do spirit that is evident in the national and international business and political community. Under the stewardship of Narendra Modi. India would be able to achieve its true economic potential and become an economic super power.