If India stopped buying Russian oil, China would gain and global prices would go up (The Print, Opinion, 21 August 2025)

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Gopal Krishna Agarwal

The West should thank India for buying Russian oil and stabilising the global market.

India imports around 85-90 per cent of its crude oil requirements. Its crude import bill was approximately $132-140 billion for FY 2023-24. It is evident that even a minor change in the price of crude can have a large overall effect on the balance of payment position. India does not have the luxury of printing dollars. It must always take steps based on the best interests of its 1.4 billion citizens.

In 2022, the world was on the brink of an oil shock after the Russia-Ukraine war. Panic hit the oil markets and crude prices soared to $137 per barrel. The West had two choices — ban Russian oil completely and let the prices explode or find other ways to keep the market functioning. The G7, therefore, introduced a price cap — $60 per barrel — to keep the supply flowing. Any country could buy Russian crude legally as long as it was below that price.

Before the war, Russian crude oil import was negligible for India, just 0.2 per cent of imports. In 2024-25, 36-40 per cent of our oil came from Russia. And it was vital for stabilising global oil prices. The US publicly supported India’s move. In 2022, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said, “We’re happy for India to buy as much Russian oil as it wants… even above the cap…” Former US Ambassador Eric Garcetti said that the US wanted someone to buy Russian oil at the cap.

Russia’s crude production in 2024-25 averaged around 10.45 million barrels per day (bpd), which is about 10 per cent of global supplies. Of this, 4.2-4.5 million bpd was exported. Currently, oil demand and supply are fairly balanced. However, in case Russian supplies were disrupted, crude prices would go up by $10-15 per barrel. The oil market has seen such volatility every time there was talk of Russian flow disruption due to sanctions.

India’s balancing role

India has always respected global compulsions. But, strategically, India’s energy security is also linked to regional geopolitics. In 2007, Iran supplied 12 per cent of our crude. After being sanctioned over its nuclear programme, India stopped buying from Iran. Meanwhile, China still buys 1.4 million bpd from Iran despite sanctions. Between 2022 and 2025, more than 40 per cent of Russia’s crude exports went to China. And if India stopped buying crude from Russia, Moscow would sell more oil to China at bigger discounts. The net result would be that China will be at a greater advantage and global crude prices will go up.

In this global turmoil driven by protectionism and trade and tariff wars, India is treading its path carefully, balancing regional and global geopolitics with resilience. The Indian government’s prudent policy decisions are being appreciated across the globe and bringing positive results. Recently, S&P Global has also raised India’s long-term sovereign credit rating to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB-‘, with short-term rating upgraded to ‘A-2’ from ‘A-3’. The stable outlook reflects confidence in India’s strong economic fundamentals, prudent policy management, and effective monetary policy — a recognition of India’s growing financial resilience.

The successful handling of the economy by the Narendra Modi government has imparted resilience to the economy, ensuring it can bear economic shocks. We are the fastest-growing major economy, our fiscal position is improving, and there is increasing efficiency in government spending. All these means India will be able to negotiate as a partner and won’t be a pushover.

India’s imports of Russian crude oil averaged 1.7–2 million bpd in 2024-25, accounting for 36-40 per cent of its total crude imports. The average discount on Russian crude was approximately $3.5 per barrel, compared to Middle Eastern crude, which was costlier by about $4-5 per barrel. This translated into estimated savings of $7-10 billion on India’s import bill, including $2.3-3.8 billion (Rs 19,000-31,500 crore) in direct savings from lower prices compared to alternative suppliers. In addition, India avoided a potential $9-11 billion increase in its import bill by helping stabilise global supply and preventing price spikes.

If India stopped buying Russian oil, it would be forced to compete in crowded West Asian markets, likely causing a sharp rise in global crude prices. By importing Russian oil, India is not just reducing its own costs but also helping to balance the global oil market.

Gopal Krishna Agarwal is the National Spokesperson of BJP. He tweets @gopalkagarwal. Views are personal.

Link: https://theprint.in/opinion/india-buying-russian-oil-global-prices/2725482/

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The Global Rise of the Right

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By Gopal Krishna Agarwal,

Amidst the ever-changing dynamics of global and internal politics, Prime Minister Narendra Modi shows how a leader should paddle the responsibilities of nation on one’s capable shoulders.

BY 2014, Bhartiya masses were absolutely fed up with the tyranny of the unelected bodies like National Advisory Council (NAC), judicial overreach and political corruption and voted in the national democratic alliance (NDA) under Narendra Modi with a thumping majority. People wanted a strong leader who was proud of Bharat’s heritage, practices and tradition, assured the sanctity of its international borders and guaranteed peace within, and follow the policy of Nation First.

FEAR MONGERING TACTICS

Fears were raised by the opposition that if BJP under Modi was voted to power, Bharat’s relations with Islamic countries, especially the vital Middle Eastern Block, would nosedive. None of these preposterous prophecies came true. In fact, over the years Bharat’s relations with Gulf countries has seen significant improvement. The first Hindu temple in the region was inaugurated by PM Modi in Abu Dhabi. Happy with the performance of the Modi government, people have voted him back to power for the third successive term. However, the opposition parties, particularly leader of opposition Rahul Gandhi, are leaving no stone unturned to undermine Narendra Modi to the extent that he continues with is anti-Bharat tirade in alliance with international Left-liberal forces.

REBUTTAL BY BIGGIES

Now, it seems that the nightmare of Left, social democrats and self-certified liberal leadership across the world is not going to end anytime soon. They cannot ever fully recover from the speeches from Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni, US Vice President JD Vance and President Donald Trump made in the recent past Right leaning leaders are speaking their mind, and this has encouraged candour and free speech across the globe. The Left is in retreat.

In her speech at CPAC in February this year, Meloni mentioned that Bill Clinton and Tony Blair created global leftist liberal network, and they were hailed as statesmen by this cabal. Today this same associated group, with its tentacles spread to academia, media, film and television industry brand popular conservative leaders like Modi as threats to democracy. The moral hectoring that the voters in any country that votes for a conservative, right leaning government receive is unbelievable.

INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL DYNAMICS

This is also very much evident right now in Germany where a new party Alternative for Germany (Afi)) has emerged as a popular choice. AFD prioritizes German sovereignty and culture and Western values, and the traditional left leaning parties feel threatened.

However, instead of responding to the wishes of the people, as a party is expected to in a democracy, the incumbents looked for ways to keep AID out of the electoral fray. In December last year, the Romanian presidential election was annulled by its top court on flimsy ground of Russian influence only because the winner, Calin Georgescu was considered far-right and a NATO critic. He was later declared ineligible to contest elections by the Central Electoral Bureau of Romania, and the decision was upheld in Romania’s constitutional court.

The latest in this series is the conviction of France’s right leaning leader Marie Le Pen on the charges of diversion of public funds for political purposes. She has been declared ineligible to contest election for five years. Effectively ending her political career. The playbook of the Left is simple: keep patriotic leaders away from contesting elections by unleashing a witch-hunt against them through their ideological partners in the judiciary. This allows these parties to maintain a façade of being democratic while ensuring that mass leaders do not get elected.

THE PROBLEM OF LEFT

Why is it difficult for the Left to accept that faith, practices and tradition matters to most of the people even today? Is it because they see these values as obstacles in their aim to capture the state and its instrumentalities? The idea of political correctness is also strange. Something that is obvious and appeals to common sense becomes politically incorrect just because the Left does not approve of it. Anything that is consistent to Left’s worldview becomes politically correct!

Whatever it may claim, one must understand that Leftist ideology is intrinsically anti-national and anti-democratic. It believes in complete capture of state machinery to perpetuate their rule and relies on woke ideology to brainwash the young and the impressionable. They do not believe in the ability of people to decide for their own selves.

TROUBLING RESEMBLANCE IN BHARAT

We see disturbing parallels in Bharat. Congress believes and acts as if it has the natural claim to rule over Bharat. It refuses to accept electoral verdicts and attacks the institution of the Election Commission of India and the EVMs when it loses. It shows similar attitude towards investigation authorities, as in the National Herald case and even judicial pronouncements, undermining court orders when they are unfavourable to them. In January this year, Rahul Gandhi declared that the Congress Party is not only fighting the BJP and the RSS but the Indian State itself!

A global coalition of the Right, something the Left would claim to be an oxymoron, is gradually emerging. Countries would continue to engage with one-another prioritising their national interests. It only implies that the governments would be more responsive to the needs and aspirations of its own people. This is true democracy at work. During his current official visit to Bharat, US Vice President JD Vance said, “President Trump and I know that Prime Minister Modi is a tough negotiator. It’s one of the reasons why we respect him” Strong national identity and conservative leanings do not preclude global cooperation. PM Modi is a global icon of popular conservative leader and has forged strong relations with other global leaders. It bodes well for Bharat’s global standing and its future role in current geopolitical scenario.

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Operation SINDOOR

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The BJP leader addressed fears in some quarters that India’s military response to Pakistan would impact the economy amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and a global tariff war.

Operation Sindoor will not have any adverse effect on the Indian economy, BJP national spokesperson Gopal Krishna Agarwal said on Friday. Addressing a press conference in New Delhi. Agarwal sought to dispel fears in some quarters that India’s military response to Pakistan following the terror attack in Pahalgam would impact the economy amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and a global tariff war.

There will be no negative impact, as India has never had significant economic relations with Pakistan,” the BJP leader said. “On the other hand, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi said yesterday, if Pakistan does not stop terrorism, its economy will be completely destroyed.”

Agarwal emphasised the strength of India’s defence capabilities, underlining that 65 percent of the country’s defence requirements are met through domestic procurement. India’s PSUs -long seen as a liability- have shown exemplary market performance and profitability, especially in the defence sector, with defence exports also rising rapidly, he said.

“You will find companies like Hindustan Aeronautics and Mazagon Dock have orders booked years in advance,” Agarwal said. “The BrahMos missile and the HAL Tejas combat aircraft have acquired a global reputation.”

He also highlighted India’s growing global engagement and strengthening diplomatic ties with the United States and European nations. Agarwal referred to PM Modi’s statement during the Russia-Ukraine war, in which he tweeted, “This is not the era of war.”

“This assertive message echoed globally, urging both nations to resolve their issues through dialogue. His call for peace received significant international praise and support,” Agarwal added.

The BJP spokesperson also referenced External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, asserting that India seeks equal partners, not “preachers.”

India’s global confidence is growing.

He noted that growing global confidence in India is mirrored in domestic stability. Despite rising inflation worldwide, India has managed to keep price inflation under control at 4.4 percent, lower than the RBI’s target band. While fiscal deficit levels have reached alarming levels in countries like the United States, India has kept its deficit under control. Agarwal also noted that India’s foreign exchange reserves stand at $700 billion, even as the country continues to attract significant foreign direct investment.

He also pointed to global praise for India’s Digital Public Infrastructure, especially at the G20 summit held in 2023. This includes the Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) scheme, which directly transfers welfare benefits into beneficiaries’ bank accounts. He highlighted the exponential growth of India’s capital markets, citing Morgan Stanley reports that project India’s capital market-currently at 81,000-to reach 1,00,000 by 2026.

The BJP leader acknowledged that challenges remain, particularly due to the ongoing global tariff war and its disruptions. However, Agarwal suggested that this may offer India an opportunity to present itself as an alternative global manufacturing hub, referencing Apple’s recent substantial investment in Bengaluru.

“Compared to our competitor countries, our reciprocal tariffs remain low. We will take advantage of this.” Agarwal said. He also noted that, according to the RBI’s May bulletin. India’s manufacturing sector is expected to remain strong even if the country does not become a global manufacturing hub-thanks to its robust domestic consumption base.

The BJP leader also referenced the recent HSBC composite PMI index for India, which stood at 61.2. Indicating expansion in both the services and manufacturing sectors.

Agarwal cited other reports, including those by Moody’s and Fitch, highlighting India’s strong growth potential. “The economy is driven by perception, and the sentiment around India is very positive,” he said.

The press conference underscored the Modi government’s ongoing commitment to fostering economic growth through strategic reforms and policy initiatives. The creation of the Deregulation Commission aims to reduce bureaucratic hurdles and improve the ease of doing business, aligning with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s recent warning against overregulating enterprises and the role of the Competition Commission of India. Efforts are also underway to implement labour law reforms at the state level and to accelerate the finalisation of trade agreements, thereby enhancing India’s global trade prospects. At the same time, significant initiatives are being rolled out to expand the country’s renewable and nuclear energy capacities.

(The writer is National Spokesperson of BJP)