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Gopal Krishna Agarwal

When India’s growth outperforms expectations, the Congress party searches for technical objections to dismiss it. Genuine scrutiny of economic data is healthy for democracy. But scrutiny built on comparing incompatible statistics, quoting half a sentence from an IMF report, and mistaking a household grocery bill for a national price index is not scrutiny. It is a script written in advance.

There is a peculiar ritual that plays out every time India’s economy performs well. First comes the news: growth of 7.8 percent in the April to June quarter of this financial year. The fastest expansion recorded by any large economy in the world for that period. Then, within days. comes the counter-narrative from the Indian National Congress: the number is false, the arithmetic is rigged, and the real story is one of stagnation dressed up as success.

This jump was based on a gross misstatement by a former finance secretary, who in all respect expected to know the truth about his agenda-driven statement. The Congress did not stop here, but the party’s General Secretary for Communications has gone further than usual, issuing a three-page statement that claims real growth is “basically zero” and that the government owes the country an explanation for what it calls a 43 lakh crore rupee disappearance from the size of the Indian economy.

It is worth taking this claim seriously enough to examine it line by line, because that is precisely what its authors did not do. When one does, the entire edifice collapses under the weight of a single, elementary statistical error, repeated with great confidence and even greater carelessness.

The trick at the heart of the claim

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation released a new GDP series in February 2026, based on 2022-23 as the base year, replacing the outdated 2011-12 series. This is a routine and necessary exercise that every economy undertakes periodically to reflect current patterns of production and consumption. Under the new series, India’s nominal GDP for the first quarter of the previous financial year. 2025-26, was estimated at approximately 80 lakh crore rupees. Under the old series, the same quarter had been estimated at around 86 lakh crore rupees.

The misguided ex beaurocrate’s calculation takes the old series figure of 86 lakh crore rupees for last year and divided it into this year’s new series figure of 88.27 lakh crore rupees. That division produces a nominal growth rate of only 2.6 percent, from which the gentleman then subtracts inflation to arrive at its dramatic conclusion of near zero growth. The trouble is that this calculation compares two numbers that were never meant to be compared. One is drawn from a series that has been discontinued. The other is drawn from a series with different coverage, different data sources, and a different base year. Dividing one by the other does not produce a growth rate. It produces nonsense dressed in decimal points.

 The correct comparison, using the new series on both sides, is straightforward. Nominal GDP rose from 80 lakh crore rupees to 88.27 lakh crore rupees, a nominal growth of 10.3 per cent. At constant prices, real GDP rose from 75.46 lakh crore rupees to 81.36 lakh crore rupees, which is real growth of 7.8 percent, exactly the figure the government announced and exactly the figure that has now been disputed on the basis of an invalid calculation. Congress Party endorsed the flawed comparison to suite its agenda. That a technocrat of his experience did not catch such a basic error. or chose not to, says a great deal about the intent behind this exercise. Leave aside the individual, but the conspiracy that requires travelling backwards in time.

The most serious accusation in the Congress statement is that the government secretly and suddenly reduced last year’s GDP figure in order to inflate this year’s growth number. This charge collapses the moment one lays out the actual sequence of events. The old series figure of 86.05 lakh crore rupees for the April to June quarter of 2025-26 was released in August 2025. The new series, with its revised figure of 80.32 lakh crore rupees for the same quarter, was released in February 2026, a full six months before the April to June 2026 GDP estimate was ever calculated.

A further, minor revision brought the figure to 80.00 lakh crore rupees by the end of August this year, a movement of barely 0.32 lakh crore rupees. For the conspiracy theory to hold, the government would have needed to know in February. Precisely what growth rate it wanted to show in September and to have engineered the base accordingly, months before the current quarter’s economic activity had even taken place. This is not how national accounting works, and it is not how time works either.

The overwhelming majority of the difference between the old and new figures arose from a comprehensive, well-documented methodological rebasing exercise conducted half a year before the number that is supposedly being manipulated even existed. Rebasing did not begin in 2026.

Controversy is selective

India has revised its GDP base year nine times since independence. And this revision is done every 5/6-year interval. Five of those revisions took place while the Congress party itself governed at the Centre, under Jawaharlal Nehru in 1956, Indira Gandhi in 1967, Rajiv Gandhi in 1988, and twice under the United Progressive Alliance government in 2006 and 2010.

In fact, when the 2011-12 base series was introduced in 2015, the growth estimate for the UPA’s final year in office. 2013-14 was revised upward from 4.7 percent to 6.9 percent. a far larger swing than anything being debated today. If the current government’s alleged motive is to inflate its own record at the expense of historical accuracy, it has a strange way of going about it, since the same revision exercise that Congress now calls fraudulent actually improved the recorded performance of the UPA years. Rebasing is neither new nor partisan.

The 43 lakh crore rupee illusion

Congress arrives at its headline figure of 43 lakh crore rupees by adding together the differences between old and new series estimates across four separate years. This is statistical theatre rather than serious analysis. GDP is not a fixed, discoverable quantity waiting to be measured with perfect accuracy once and for all. It is an estimate, built from surveys, administrative records, and sampling methods, and it is revised as better data becomes available.

The new series incorporates far more granular information than before, including GST returns, vehicle registration data, updated labour force surveys, improved treatment of unincorporated enterprises, and the adoption of double deflation in manufacturing, a method the International Monetary Fund had itself urged India to adopt.

 None of this amounts to erasing 43 lakh crore rupees worth of goods and services that once existed. It reflects a more accurate accounting method being applied retrospectively, which is precisely what good statistical practice demands. It is also worth noting that a lower nominal GDP base mechanically pushes up ratios such as fiscal deficit to GDP and public debt to GDP, both of which are politically sensitive figures the government would have every incentive to keep looking favorable if manipulation were truly the goal. Instead, annual real growth rates under the new series were revised only modestly, from 7.2 to 7.3 per cent for 2023-24, from 7.1 to 7.2 per cent for 2024-25, and from 7.7 to 7.8 per cent for 2025-26. These are not the fingerprints of a rigged system. They are the fingerprints of a routine statistical upgrade.

Confusing the kitchen budget with the GDP deflator

The statement also argues that since retail and wholesale inflation ran higher than the GDP deflator, the deflator itself must be wrong, and that using a more realistic inflation figure would bring growth down to somewhere between four and six percent. This argument rests on a basic misunderstanding of what these different price indices measure. Retail inflation captures the prices households pay for a specific consumption basket. Wholesale inflation captures prices of goods and raw materials at the factory gate and largely excludes services.

The GDP deflator, by contrast, must capture price movements across the entire economy, including investment, government spending, exports, construction, financial services, and information technology, sectors that a household inflation basket simply does not touch. MoSPI uses more than three hundred individual price deflators to construct this figure. A single household’s grocery bill cannot substitute for that exercise, however emotionally persuasive the comparison may sound on a podium.

The related claim that a negative deflator in manufacturing proves manipulation similarly misstating the method now in use. Under double deflation, output and inputs are each deflated separately using their own price indices, and real value added is calculated as the difference between the two. When input costs rise faster than output prices, the resulting implicit deflator can turn negative even as both output and input prices are rising in absolute terms. This is a known and accepted feature of the method, not evidence of wrongdoing. Ironically, it was the IMF that criticised India’s earlier reliance on the simpler single deflation approach. The new series adopted the more rigorous method the IMF recommended and is now being condemned for the very improvement that was demanded of it.

Reading half report

The statement leans heavily on the IMF’s 2025 assessment, which gave India’s national accounts a grade of C, without mentioning what that assessment actually said. The IMF’s concerns were specific: an outdated base year, insufficient use of producer price indices, excessive reliance on single deflation, and discrepancies between production and expenditure-based estimates.

The new series addresses precisely these concerns. It updates the base year. incorporates new producer price indices, adopts double deflation, and works toward integrating supply and use tables to reduce discrepancies. To cite the IMF’s criticism of the old system while attacking the government for fixing that very system is not analysis. It is selective quotation in service of a predetermined conclusion.

The same applies to the claim about manufacturing activity. The statement cites the Purchasing Managers’ Index touching a five-year low in August, without mentioning that the actual reading was 52.8, comfortably above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. Slower expansion is not the same as the 5.2 percent contraction the statement alleges elsewhere, and in any case August falls outside the April to June quarter under discussion. A survey conducted after the quarter ended cannot retroactively erase economic activity that has already been measured and recorded.

What the ground actually shows

Beyond the arithmetic, it is worth asking what independent, high-frequency indicators tell us about the state of the economy, since these are far harder to argue with than a contested statistical series. Domestic passenger vehicle sales in July rose 34.3 percent year on year, the strongest July on record. Tractor sales rose 28.1 per cent. two wheeler retail sales rose 28.3 per cent, and total vehicle registrations rose 25.9 per cent, with every major category posting its best July ever.

 GST collections grew 15.4 per cent, digital payment volumes grew 16.6 per cent, and bank credit expanded at its fastest pace in over a decade, with public sector banks posting their highest ever annual net profit and their lowest ever bad loan ratio.

 Manufacturing output grew 7.3 per cent in July, with nineteen of twenty three industry groups expanding. Merchandise exports touched a record 44.24 billion dollars for the month. Foreign direct investment inflows in the April to June quarter reached their strongest level in at least fifteen years, and foreign exchange reserves touched a record 729 billion dollars in August.

 Retail inflation, meanwhile, remained contained at 4.45 per cent, comfortably within the tolerance band. None of these numbers come from a press release issued by the ruling party. They come from GST records, vehicle registration data, banking regulators, and trade statistics, and they all point in the same direction: an economy that is expanding, not one limping along at close to zero growth as the Congress statement would have the country believe.

 A pattern, not an aberration

It would be easy to treat this episode as an isolated dispute over methodology, but it fits a familiar pattern. When India’s growth has disappointed in the past, the Congress party has cited it as proof of governmental failure. When India’s growth outperforms expectations, as it has now, the party searches for a technical objection to dismiss it. Genuine scrutiny of economic data is healthy for democracy and should be welcomed. But scrutiny built on comparing incompatible statistical series, quoting half a sentence of an IMF report and mistaking a household grocery bill for a national price index is not scrutiny. It is a script written in advance, in search of any set of numbers that might fit it.

India does not need to be defensive about a growth rate that places it well ahead of the United States, China, the United Kingdom, Japan and every other major economy for the same quarter. It needs an Opposition capable of engaging with that success honestly, questioning where genuine gaps remain, in employment quality, in regional disparities, in the pace of manufacturing job creation and proposing real alternatives. The country’s growth story is being written in GST returns, export data, vehicle registrations and bank balance sheets, not in an arithmetic error.

By Gopal Krishna Agarwal

Budget 2024 is a significant milestone in India’s journey towards becoming a developed nation, or  Viksit Bharat, by 2047. It builds on the resilience established over the last two terms of the government led by Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi. The Economic Survey clearly laid out how the economy is on a strong footing while identifying challenges. Finance minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman has skilfully navigated these important aspects of the economy. Despite the Opposition’s political reservations, it is evident that the provisions in this budget are far-reaching and transformative. The primary focus is on employment generation, support to the middle class, agriculture growth, MSMEs and urban infrastructure development. The budget also talks about next generation reforms and improving factors of production.

We have to keep in mind that budget announcements are based on the demand of the Union ministries and the states and the assessment of their requirements by the finance ministry. These allocations can be increased during the year. Also, states not mentioned in the speech still get their due under the schemes.

Employment generation is a critical area. The budget ensures that job creation is directly and indirectly supported. The introduction of an internship programme for 10 million youth at 500 top corporations, financed and supported by the government, is a notable initiative. It is designed to bridge the gap between education and industry requirements. Support for first-time employees through the first month’s salary being paid by the government and Provident Fund (PF) and National Pension System (NPS) contributions are welcome steps. Upgrading of the Industrial Training Institutes (ITIs) and training two million youth will further empower the workforce, including women workers.

The FM has also focused on the MSME sector with enhanced credit guarantees, reworking the Non-Performing Assets (NPA) identification process, and raising the Mudra loan limit to ₹20 lakh. Most importantly, the credit assessment model has been improved to ensure that deserv- ing enterprises receive the necessary financial support. The manufacturing sector will benefit significantly from the allocation of 1 lakh crore for innovation and research, as well as funds for start-ups. The abolition of the angel tax, a major demand of start-ups, will bring a new line of cap- ital investment, fostering a culture of innovation and entrepreneurship.

The budget also provides much-needed tax relief to the middle class. The increase in the standard deduction limit and reduced tax rates across all slabs will provide respite to millions of households. This demography will also benefit from infrastructure development, with an impressive allocation of ₹11.11 lakh crore aimed at enhancing the ease of living.

Agriculture and the rural population have received special attention. The government has allocated funds for the construction of 30 million new houses under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana. These initiatives aim to improve living conditions and provide much-needed relief to rural communities. The government’s exemplary work in delivering social welfare through digital infrastructure is evident in this budget. The Viksit Bharat vision entails welfare schemes reaching every section of the population. The allocation to the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme and the initiation of the Jan jatiya Unnat Abhiyan are steps towards achieving saturation in tribal villages.

The budget also emphasizes sectors such as tourism, energy, urban development, manufacturing and support for women and youth empowerment. Each of These areas has found a place in the budget, with targeted initiatives aimed at boosting growth and improving the standard of living. The comprehensive approach ensures that every segment of society benefits from the nation’s progress.

Innovation and research are key components of this budget, with substantial funds allocated to foster a culture of creativity and technological advancement. Next-generation reforms, including a new economic policy

framework, new tax levies, and easing of tax compliance, have been thoughtfully implemented. These measures aim to improve overall productivity, creating a more efficient and competitive economy.

In conclusion, the budget is a significant step towards building Viksit Bharat. It lays a solid foundation for a prosperous and resilient econ omy where all segments of society are taken care of. The government’s focus on employment generation, infrastructure development, and social welfare is commendable. Together, we will build a prosperous and resilient India, ensuring that every citizen benefits from the nation’s progress.

The current geopolitical situation arising out of the US-China trade war and our conflict with Pakistan can be leveraged to India’s advantage. How we do so will decide the future of India.

By Gopal Krishna Agarwal,

The destination of Viksit Bharat is that we become a robust economy with high per capita income, have strong defence and military capabilities, and intense global engagements with world leaders and international institutions that match our stature.

The current situation provides opportunities for India in all these three arenas: economic power, defence capabilities, and global engagement. How we leverage them will decide the future of India. Ultimately, it is the people, their perception, and will to achieve that matters.

The current geopolitical situation arising out of the US-China trade war and our conflict with Pakistan can be leveraged to India’s advantage. Domestically, our economic fundamentals like low inflation, a fiscal consolidation glide path, good foreign exchange reserves, highest foreign direct investment flows, infrastructure growth, digital public infrastructure in place, booming capital markets, and revival of public sector undertakings and banks, among other things, are helping build a robust Indian economy.

India’s new trade advantage

The trade tension between the US and China is benefiting India. American buyers are looking toward Indian suppliers, improving India’s prospect for better engagement with the world. We have free trade agreements (FTAs) with Australia, the UAE, and have just concluded an expansive FTA with the United Kingdom. An interim trade deal with the US is also imminent.

Our increasing economic and commercial engagement with the wider world dramatically increases the market for Indian products. Reduction in import duties will impart competitiveness for Indian manufacturers and boost their overall productivity. India has already undertaken a number of structural reforms, and a lot more are in the pipeline.

Though there will be resistance to reforms by vested interest groups, and the success of government will be measured in how deftly it manages to blunt political opposition to the reform agenda. Other countries in the world are also trying to capture the opportunities arising from trade disruptions. India will need to be extremely agile to be able to emerge as a winner.

A message to Pakistan and the world

In the recent standoff with Pakistan, India has demonstrated its intent as well as the ability to punish the purveyors of terrorism. It has made it clear that no place in Pakistan is outside the reach of Indian armed forces. We have been able to destroy Pakistan-sponsored core terrorist group infrastructure, situated deep inside Pakistan, at nine places.

During Operation Sindoor, India destroyed and destabilised Pakistani defences at places like Lahore, Karachi, and Rawalpindi. India’s targeted strikes on eleven major Pakistani airbases have decisively shifted regional military dynamics. These pre-emptive attacks, carried out with precision, have dismantled Pakistan’s ability to maintain any air superiority, and any meaningful counter-response from these bases having critical function, inflicting psychological and strategic damage to the Pakistani military establishment.

The successful neutralising of Pakistan’s military aerial intrusions, and our ability to defend Indian airspace, is also evident. At the same time, India’s repeated declarations that our actions were non-escalatory in nature gave Pakistan enough opportunity to off-ramp, ensuring global support for our actions.

Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi ji said that terrorism and talks, and terrorism and trade, cannot go together. He added that any future talk with Pakistan will be on Pak-Occupied Kashmir (PoK) and state-sponsored terrorism only. The emphatic statement that any terrorist action will be considered an ‘act of war’, and keeping the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance, shows a clear policy shift in our dealing with Pakistan.

An issue at hand is also how a regional conflict with an adversary that is in a dire state—of unstable economy, multiple state actors within the ruling establishment, and civic unrest from Baluchistan and Punjab province uprisings—can impact us.

Even so, the world over, it is acknowledged that India is the most compelling story of the present era, attracting huge global investments, and we must not squander this opportunity.

Brand India on the rise

Prime Minister Modi’s engagement with global leadership and at international platforms has been exemplary. His interventions in the Ukraine-Russia war, and the statement that “this is not an era of war” to President Putin, have been very well appreciated across the world. The success of the G20 has established ‘Brand India’. Our US engagement shows the finesse of a mature diplomacy and a mutuality of interests. India’s straight and frank talks with European nations about preaching and practising democracy, or dealing with oil sanctions, come from clear vision and inner strength. India now acts and talks like a global leader, and as our economy grows bigger, our say in global affairs will increase even more.

The stage is set for India to assume strong leadership status at the global level, but it needs to do a lot of work on many fronts domestically. India has to grow its GDP at over 8 per cent per annum on a sustained basis, something that has never been achieved in the country till now. Our tryst with destiny, and opportune time is here; whether we the people of India, and our politics, will rise to the occasion, only time will tell.

Gopal Krishna Agarwal is the national spokesperson of the BJP. He tweets @gopalkagarwal. Views are personal.

(Edited by Asavari Singh)

Link: https://theprint.in/opinion/india-is-the-most-compelling-story-of-the-present-era-we-mustnt-squander-this-opportunity/2628107/

Operation Sindoor will not have any adverse effect on the Indian economy, BJP national spokesperson Gopal Krishna Agarwal said on Friday. Addressing a press conference in New Delhi. Agarwal sought to dispel fears in some quarters that India’s military response to Pakistan following the terror attack in Pahalgam would impact the economy amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and a global tariff war.

There will be no negative impact, as India has never had significant economic relations with Pakistan,” the BJP leader said. “On the other hand, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi said yesterday, if Pakistan does not stop terrorism, its economy will be completely destroyed.”

Agarwal emphasised the strength of India’s defence capabilities, underlining that 65 percent of the country’s defence requirements are met through domestic procurement. India’s PSUs -long seen as a liability-have shown exemplary market performance and profitability, especially in the defence sector, with defence exports also rising rapidly, he said.

“You will find companies like Hindustan Aeronautics and Mazagon Dock have orders booked years in advance.” Agarwal said. “The BrahMos missile and the HAL Tejas combat aircraft have acquired a global reputation.”

He also highlighted India’s growing global engagement and strengthening diplomatic ties with the United States and European nations. Agarwal referred to PM Modi’s statement during the Russia-Ukraine war, in which he tweeted, “This is not the era of war.”

“This assertive message echoed globally, urging both nations to resolve their issues through dialogue. His call for peace received significant international praise and support,” Agarwal added.

The BJP spokesperson also referenced External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar asserting that India seeks equal partners, not “preachers.”

India’s global confidence is growing’

He noted that growing global confidence in India is mirrored in domestic stability. Despite rising inflation worldwide, India has managed to keep price inflation under control-at 4.4 percent, lower than the RBI’s target band. While fiscal deficit levels have reached alarming levels in countries like the United States, India has kept its deficit under control. Agarwal also noted that India’s foreign exchange reserves stand at $700 billion, even as the country continues to attract significant foreign direct investment.

He also pointed to global praise for India’s Digital Public Infrastructure, especially at the G20 summit held in 2023. This includes the Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) scheme, which directly transfers welfare benefits into beneficiaries’ bank accounts. He highlighted the exponential growth of India’s capital markets, citing Morgan Stanley reports that project India’s capital market-currently at 81,000-to reach 1,00,000 by 2026.

The BJP leader acknowledged that challenges remain, particularly due to the ongoing global tariff war and its disruptions. However, Agarwal suggested that this may offer India an opportunity to present itself as an alternative global manufacturing hub, referencing Apple’s recent substantial investment in Bengaluru.

“Compared to our competitor countries, our reciprocal tariffs remain low. We will take advantage of this.” Agarwal said. He also noted that, according to the RBI’s May bulletin. India’s manufacturing sector is expected to remain strong even if the country does not become a global manufacturing hub-thanks to its robust domestic consumption base.

The BJP leader also referenced the recent HSBC composite PMI index for India, which stood at 61.2. Indicating expansion in both the services and manufacturing sectors.

Agarwal cited other reports, including those by Moody’s and Fitch, highlighting India’s strong growth potential. “The economy is driven by perception, and the sentiment around India is very positive,” he said.

The press conference underscored the Modi government’s ongoing commitment to fostering economic growth through strategic reforms and policy initiatives. The creation of the Deregulation Commission aims to reduce bureaucratic hurdles and improve the ease of doing business, aligning with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s recent warning against overregulating enterprises and the role of the Competition Commission of India. Efforts are also underway to implement labour law reforms at the state level and to accelerate the finalisation of trade agreements, thereby enhancing India’s global trade prospects. At the same time, significant initiatives are being rolled out to expand the country’s renewable and nuclear energy capacities.

Amidst the ever-changing dynamics of global and internal politics, Prime Minister Narendra Modi shows how a leader should paddle the responsibilities of nation on one’s capable shoulders.

BY 2014 Bharatiya masses were absolutely fed up with the tyranny of the unelected bodies like National Advisory Council (NAC), judicial overreach and political corruption and voted in the national democratic alliance (NDA) under Narendra Modi with a thumping majority. People wanted a strong leader who was proud of Bharat’s heritage, practices and tradition, assured the sanctity of its international borders and guaranteed peace within, and follow the policy of Nation First.

FEAR MONGERING TACTICS

Fears were raised by the opposition that if BJP under Modi was voted to power, Bharat’s relations with Islamic countries, especially the vital Middle Eastern Block, would nosedive. None of these preposterous prophecies came true. In fact, over the years Bharat’s relations with Gulf countries has seen significant improvement. The first Hindu temple in the region was inaugurated by PM Modi in Abu Dhabi. Happy with the performance of the Modi government, people have voted him back to power for the third successive term. However, the opposition parties, particularly leader of opposition Rahul Gandhi, are leaving no stone unturned to undermine Narendra Modi to the extent that he continues with is anti-Bharat tirade in alliance with international Left-liberal forces.

REBUTTAL BY BIGGIES

Now, it seems that the nightmare of Left, social democrats and self-certified liberal leadership across the world is not going to end anytime soon. They cannot ever fully recover from the speeches from Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni, US Vice President JD Vance and President Donald Trump made in the recent past Right leaning leaders are speaking their mind, and this has encouraged candour and free speech across the globe. The Left is in retreat.

In her speech at CPAC in February this year, Meloni mentioned that Bill Clinton and Tony Blair created global leftist liberal network, and they were hailed as statesmen by this cabal. Today this same associated group, with its tentacles spread to academia, media, film and television industry brand popular conservative leaders like Modi as threats to democracy. The moral hectoring that the voters in any country that votes for a conservative, right leaning government receive is unbelievable.

INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL DYNAMICS

This is also very much evident right now in Germany where a new party Alternative for Germany (Afi)) has emerged as a popular choice. AfD prioritizes German sovereignty and culture and Western values, and the traditional left leaning parties feel threatened.

However, instead of responding to the wishes of the people, as a party is expected to in a democracy, the incumbents looked for ways to keep AID out of the electoral fray. In December last year, the Romanian presidential election was annulled by its top court on flimsy ground of Russian influence only because the winner, Calin Georgescu was considered far-right and a NATO critic. He was later declared ineligible to contest elections by the Central Electoral Bureau of Romania, and the decision was upheld in Romania’s constitutional court.

The latest in this series is the conviction of France’s right leaning leader Marie Le Pen on the charges of diversion of public funds for political purposes. She has been declared ineligible to contest election for five years. Effectively ending her political career. The playbook of the Left is simple: keep patriotic leaders away from contesting elections by unleashing a witch-hunt against them through their ideological partners in the judiciary. This allows these parties to maintain a façade of being democratic while ensuring that mass leaders do not get elected.

THE PROBLEM OF LEFT

Why is it difficult for the Left to accept that faith, practices and tradition matters to most of the people even today? Is it because they see these values as obstacles in their aim to capture the state and its instrumentalities? The idea of political correctness is also strange. Something that is obvious and appeals to common sense becomes politically incorrect just because the Left does not approve of it. Anything that is consistent to Left’s worldview becomes politically correct!

Whatever it may claim, one must understand that Leftist ideology is intrinsically anti-national and anti-democratic. It believes in complete capture of state machinery to perpetuate their rule and relies on woke ideology to brainwash the young and the impressionable. They do not believe in the ability of people to decide for their own selves.

TROUBLING RESEMBLANCE IN BHARAT

We see disturbing parallels in Bharat. Congress believes and acts as if it has the natural claim to rule over Bharat. It refuses to accept electoral verdicts and attacks the institution of the Election Commission of India and the EVMs when it loses. It shows similar attitude towards investigation authorities, as in the National Herald case and even judicial pronouncements, undermining court orders when they are unfavourable to them. In January this year, Rahul Gandhi declared that the Congress Party is not only fighting the BJP and the RSS but the Indian State itself!

A global coalition of the Right, something the Left would claim to be an oxymoron, is gradually emerging. Countries would continue to engage with one-another prioritising their national interests. It only implies that the governments would be more responsive to the needs and aspirations of its own people. This is true democracy at work. During his current official visit to Bharat, US Vice President JD Vance said, “President Trump and I know that Prime Minister Modi is a tough negotiator. It’s one of the reasons why we respect him” Strong national identity and conservative leanings do not preclude global cooperation. PM Modi is a global icon of popular conservative leader and has forged strong relations with other global leaders. It bodes well for Bharat’s global standing and its future role in current geopolitical scenario.Link: https://organiser.org/2025/05/27/294252/bharat/11-years-of-modi-government-redefining-bharats-political-discourse-through-nationalism/

The Print (Opinion) 23 July 2025

By Gopal Krishna Agarwal,

With the emergence of new geopolitical realities arising out of the unilateral announcement of reciprocal tariffs by President Donald Trump, the US cannot be considered a very reliable trade partner. And, even if a bilateral trade agreement with the US is concluded, uncertainty about the country’s future actions remains. 

Trump had announced a 90-day window for tariff negotiations, which ended on 9 July. He later extended the deadline to 1 August and sent letters to 14 countries informing them about new tariff rates. 

India and the US are currently holding talks over a trade agreement, with the sixth round expected to be held in August, when American trade officials will visit India. This shows India’s importance as a trading partner for the US. 

There are other ambiguities around Trump’s administrative actions, and no one is sure of the outcome of US courts’ and the Senate’s interventions. Therefore, prudence demands that we go slow and wait for countries such as China, Japan, and Vietnam to negotiate with the US. India, meanwhile, can build strategic partnerships with other countries and blocs to prevent overdependence on the US market. The EU is expected to be stable and predictable in its approach, but India has to deftly negotiate the bloc’s impulse to impose non-tariff barriers under the garb of human and labour rights, environment, climate change etc. 

The World Trade Organization is virtually defunct and rule–based trading order looks like a thing of the past. Every country, including India, is negotiating Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with multiple other nations to protect its export market. In May, India concluded FTA negotiations with the United Kingdom, while talks with the EU and the US are in advanced stages. However, our approach to FTAs cannot be a simple replication of the old template and must be influenced by outcomes of the not-so-successful past trade agreements, such as the ASEAN-India FTA and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations. 

Past mistakes

The global trade and financial architecture that emerged in the post-World War 2 period supported a rule-based trading system. It allowed several poor countries to overcome the limitations of a small economy and tap into the export market. As a result, these countries — like South Korea, Taiwan, and China — were able to experience above–average growth rates for a long period of time. We missed riding the bus of free trade due to earlier policy misadventures like quota, license raj of Congress–led governments. Now our government is committed to make India a manufacturing powerhouse, but the bus of free trade has hit major road bumps. 

India is focusing on ensuring competitiveness of domestic industry right now, as there is absolutely no substitute for building the manufacturing sector. Past FTAs failed to yield much benefit because they exposed domestic industries to global competition without strengthening the manufacturing ecosystem through infrastructure development, availability of land and power, and ease of compliances. India needs structural reforms to reduce input costs. The Modi government’s focus is on slashing costs of land, power, logistics, compliances, and raw material to enhance global competitiveness of our manufacturers. Several steps have been taken in the last 11 years by the Centre, but a lot remains to be done at the state–level, as most of these areas are basically dependent on state policies. 

Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSME) is an important sector for employment generation and integrating our manufacturing into global and regional supply chains. Therefore, before entering into any agreement, the government is ensuring full support to MSMEs. The MSMEs also have a lot to do at their end, since they face difficulty meeting international standards, which limits their competitiveness. It is important for this sector to build institutional capacity and technical know-how to follow global trade standards. Quality Control Order (QCO) was brought with this intention, but it has emerged as another challenge for Indian industries. QCOs hinder the import of raw materials and intermediate products required for manufacturing, creating a negative impact on the domestic production of goods, and reducing India’s export competitiveness. Therefore, there is a need for a more sector-specific approach to QCOs.

Our recent experiences with custom duties have shown that there is a conflict between imposition of countervailing duties and the interests of MSMEs. Such duties tend to favour big domestic producer industries at the cost of MSMEs which are the users of products that are subject to countervailing duties. So FTAs provide an opportunity for strategic tariff reduction on intermediate goods for the betterment of Indian industries. India will take a data-driven approach in determining tariffs to ensure that they don’t disrupt supply chains or discourage innovation and investment.

Agriculture sector protection, intellectual property rights, and public procurement are critical and form an important part of tariff negotiation. Hence, their interest is non-negotiable. Any concession given in these areas will be carefully evaluated and bargain precisely measured. We know that if India gives concession to one country or region, others would demand similar treatment and privileges. India should not bend over backward to seek concessions for movement of its citizens across borders as service providers. The negotiating countries use this demand to get concessions from India. Indian talent is in huge demand globally and other countries would anyway need Indian expertise. Otherwise, India can harness its human resources and potential to its own advantage.

An opportunity 

Major economic decisions are not made in the fog of uncertainty. Global economic uncertainties are not fully comprehensible and controllable, therefore India’s focus is on reducing domestic policy uncertainties. It will surely boost private capital formation. India also has to attract massive foreign capital in export-oriented sectors. But this is easier said than done. The country’s image as a destination for foreign capital faces challenges due to certain decisions of the past government, especially the Vodafone tax dispute. India still has significant work to do in areas like judicial reforms for contract enforcement.

Trade considerations cannot be fully separated from strategic considerations. The China+1 and risk diversion strategy of global manufacturers are an opportunity for India to benefit from current geopolitical challenges, and therefore the country’s focus in FTA negotiations is to counter China. Since China is a major challenge for India in multiple spheres, teaming up with countries at the receiving end of China’s irredentist and mercantilist policies is a viable option. This also means that India should still work for multilateral trade deals because third-world countries get a level playing field as well as some preferential treatment under multilateral trade platforms such as WTO.

Gopal Krishna Agarwal is the National Spokesperson of BJP.  https://theprint.in/opinion/modi-govt-learned-ftas-priority-manufacturing-powerhouse/2699066/

Gopal Krishna Agarwal

The West should thank India for buying Russian oil and stabilising the global market.

India imports around 85-90 per cent of its crude oil requirements. Its crude import bill was approximately $132-140 billion for FY 2023-24. It is evident that even a minor change in the price of crude can have a large overall effect on the balance of payment position. India does not have the luxury of printing dollars. It must always take steps based on the best interests of its 1.4 billion citizens.

In 2022, the world was on the brink of an oil shock after the Russia-Ukraine war. Panic hit the oil markets and crude prices soared to $137 per barrel. The West had two choices — ban Russian oil completely and let the prices explode or find other ways to keep the market functioning. The G7, therefore, introduced a price cap — $60 per barrel — to keep the supply flowing. Any country could buy Russian crude legally as long as it was below that price.

Before the war, Russian crude oil import was negligible for India, just 0.2 per cent of imports. In 2024-25, 36-40 per cent of our oil came from Russia. And it was vital for stabilising global oil prices. The US publicly supported India’s move. In 2022, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said, “We’re happy for India to buy as much Russian oil as it wants… even above the cap…” Former US Ambassador Eric Garcetti said that the US wanted someone to buy Russian oil at the cap.

Russia’s crude production in 2024-25 averaged around 10.45 million barrels per day (bpd), which is about 10 per cent of global supplies. Of this, 4.2-4.5 million bpd was exported. Currently, oil demand and supply are fairly balanced. However, in case Russian supplies were disrupted, crude prices would go up by $10-15 per barrel. The oil market has seen such volatility every time there was talk of Russian flow disruption due to sanctions.

India’s balancing role

India has always respected global compulsions. But, strategically, India’s energy security is also linked to regional geopolitics. In 2007, Iran supplied 12 per cent of our crude. After being sanctioned over its nuclear programme, India stopped buying from Iran. Meanwhile, China still buys 1.4 million bpd from Iran despite sanctions. Between 2022 and 2025, more than 40 per cent of Russia’s crude exports went to China. And if India stopped buying crude from Russia, Moscow would sell more oil to China at bigger discounts. The net result would be that China will be at a greater advantage and global crude prices will go up.

In this global turmoil driven by protectionism and trade and tariff wars, India is treading its path carefully, balancing regional and global geopolitics with resilience. The Indian government’s prudent policy decisions are being appreciated across the globe and bringing positive results. Recently, S&P Global has also raised India’s long-term sovereign credit rating to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB-‘, with short-term rating upgraded to ‘A-2’ from ‘A-3’. The stable outlook reflects confidence in India’s strong economic fundamentals, prudent policy management, and effective monetary policy — a recognition of India’s growing financial resilience.

The successful handling of the economy by the Narendra Modi government has imparted resilience to the economy, ensuring it can bear economic shocks. We are the fastest-growing major economy, our fiscal position is improving, and there is increasing efficiency in government spending. All these means India will be able to negotiate as a partner and won’t be a pushover.

India’s imports of Russian crude oil averaged 1.7–2 million bpd in 2024-25, accounting for 36-40 per cent of its total crude imports. The average discount on Russian crude was approximately $3.5 per barrel, compared to Middle Eastern crude, which was costlier by about $4-5 per barrel. This translated into estimated savings of $7-10 billion on India’s import bill, including $2.3-3.8 billion (Rs 19,000-31,500 crore) in direct savings from lower prices compared to alternative suppliers. In addition, India avoided a potential $9-11 billion increase in its import bill by helping stabilise global supply and preventing price spikes.

If India stopped buying Russian oil, it would be forced to compete in crowded West Asian markets, likely causing a sharp rise in global crude prices. By importing Russian oil, India is not just reducing its own costs but also helping to balance the global oil market.

Gopal Krishna Agarwal is the National Spokesperson of BJP. He tweets @gopalkagarwal. Views are personal.

Link: https://theprint.in/opinion/india-buying-russian-oil-global-prices/2725482/